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| | Corporate Profile: Northern Gold Mining Inc
Publisher: Kaiser Research Online
Author: Copyright 2013 John A Kaiser
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Northern Gold Mining Inc (NGM-V)
| Northern Gold is a Martin Shefsky company focused on its Garrison project in the Porcupine Mining District of Ontario where the company has established a 1.9 million gold ounce resource between the Jonpol and Garrcon deposits. A June 2011 PEA for the Garrcon deposit forecast 1 million ounce gold production over an 8 year mine life, with capex of $156 million and an after-tax NPV of $266 million using a 5% discount and a $1,200 gold price. |
Key to Understanding IPV Charts and Spec Value Hunter Tables
| An IPV Chart is a graphical presentation of a Spec Value Hunter table that has been constructed according to the Rational Speculation Model developed by John Kaiser. The IPV Chart allows speculators to identify which projects offer poor, fair or good speculative value in both absolute and relative terms. The speculative value depends on the project stage, the project's implied value as calculated by the company's fully diluted capitalization, stock price and net project interest, and the dream target deemed appropriate for the project. A dream target is what a project would be worth in discounted cash flow terms once in production. |
| Green background indicates the dream target judged appropriate for this play by John Kaiser - otherwise unranked. |
Poor Speculative Value -   |
Fair Speculative Value -  |
Good Speculative Value -   |
| Note: narrow arrows indicate IPV is outside the fair value channel but within 25% of the fair value limits |
| Click on the company name to view the company profile, the project name to view project details. |
| Click on the project icon if its background is shaded to get the IPV Chart for that company. |
| Garrison |  | 100% WI | Canada | 5-PEA |
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| Garrcon 43-101 Economic Study (USD except where noted otherwise) |
| PEA | Jun 23, 2011 |
| ACA Howe | Garrcon |
| Mining Scenario | TR | Mining Costs |
| Mining Type: | OP |
| Cost Currency: | USD |
| Processing Type: | CIL/heap |
| Capital Cost: | $156,300,000 |
| Operating Rate: | 11,300 tpd |
| Sustaining Cost: | $0 |
| Operating Days: | 365 |
| Operating Cost: | $15.09/t |
| Strip Rate: | 2.0 |
| BC Cash Cost per Unit: USD | $492/oz Au |
| Mine Life: | 8 years |
| BC Cash Cost Net By-Products: USD | $492/oz Au |
| LOM Tonnage: | 51,300,000 t |
| BC All-In Cost Net By-Prod: USD | $646/oz Au |
| Est Startup: |
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| Spot All-In Cost Net By-Prod: USD | $646/oz Au |
| Production Potential |
| Metal 1 | Metal 2 | Metal 3 | Metal 4 |
| Metal: | Au |
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| Grade: | 0.65 g/t |
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| Recovery: | 98.0% |
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| Annual Output: | 126,500 oz |
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| LOM Output: | 1,012,200 oz |
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| Base Case Price: | $1,200/oz |
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| Spot Price: | $1,315/oz |
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| Base Case NSR: | $36.80/t |
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| Spot NSR: | $40.33/t |
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| Base Case Valuation |
| Reported Valuation Currency: | USD |
| Pre-Tax NPV: |
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| Discount Rate: | 5% |
| After-Tax NPV: | $266,400,000 |
| Total Base Case NSR USD: | $36.80/t |
| Pre-Tax IRR: |
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| Total Spot NSR USD: | $40.33/t |
| After-Tax IRR: | 47% |
| Annual Pre-Tax Cash Flow Base Case and Net CF/FDSH USD: | $89,561,295 | $0.24 | Pre-Tax Payback: |
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| Annual Pre-Tax Cash Flow Spot and Net CF/FDSH USD: | $104,115,120 | $0.28 | After-Tax Payback: | 1.9 y |
| Enterprise Value CAD : | $8,356,346 | $.02/sh | Share Price: | $0.01 |
| Note: |
| Comparative Valuations using Life of Mine Averages |
| Discount Rate: | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% |
| Base Case Pre-Tax NPV USD: | $560,190,360 | $402,432,100 | $292,275,363 | $213,556,805 |
| Base Case Pre-Tax Net NPV/Sh USD: | $1.49 | $1.07 | $0.78 | $0.57 |
| Premium BC PT NPV over EV: | $1.48 | $1.06 | $0.76 | $0.55 |
| Spot Pre-Tax NPV USD: | $676,620,960 | $492,017,307 | $362,860,438 | $270,346,102 |
| Spot Pre-Tax Net NPV/Sh: | $1.81 | $1.31 | $0.97 | $0.72 |
| Premium Spot PT NPV over EV USD: | $1.79 | $1.30 | $0.95 | $0.70 |
| The comparative NPV calculations assume constant annual cash flow based on the life of mine average annual payable production and CapEx spent in year one. The operating cost includes the LOM sustaining capital. Due to details such as ore scheduling these NPV figures may differ from those of the 43-101 economic study. |
| After-Tax Valuations using Spot By-Product Prices |
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