| | KRO Favorites Center
Publisher: Kaiser Research Online
Author: Copyright 2022 John A. Kaiser
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| The KRO Favorites Center features the KRO companies with Bottom-Fish, Fair or Good Spec Value ratings that have been designated as Favorites in the context of upside potential linked to discovery exploration, metal price optionality, a hybrid of optionality and discovery, or innovation as related to bigger picture topics. Use the KRO Favorites Center to choose your own favorites, and use the Daily KRO Favorites Report to check out daily market activity, news releases from the past 7 days, and the full text of comments published by John Kaiser. The KRO Favorites are chosen from a larger group of companies to which have been assigned Bottom-Fish, Fair and Good Spec value ratings and which can be reviewed in the Daily Spec Value Hunter Report. |
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| The current Favorites collection was chosen on December 31, 2021. The KRO Favorites 2022 Index started a balanced index where $1,000 worth of each stock was "bought". The Index reflects the average value of the KRO Favorites portfolio. New Favorites are added to the index on the same $1,000 basis. Companies that are closed out as Favorites are frozen in the index at the price at the time of the closeout. The chart below reflects the daily change of the KRO Favorites 2022 Index during the past 120 trading days. |
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Issued
117,554,971 |
Price
$1.28 |
Working Capital
$11,638,385 |
Story Type
Discovery Exploration |
Diluted
126,923,894 |
Insiders
18.4% |
As of
9/30/2021 |
Key People
Matti Talikka (CEO), David Lotan (Chair), Mark Serdan (CFO), |
| SV Rating: Fair Spec Value - Favorite - as of December 31, 2021: Aurion Resources Ltd was assigned a Bottom-Fish Speculative Value rating on December 14, 2018 at $1.10 based on a strong working capital position in excess of $10 million and the potential of its 100% owned Risti project in the Central Lapland Belt of Finland to turn into a rich high grade gold vein district similar to the Timmins district of Canada. The rating was shifted to Fair Speculative Value effective July 10, 2019 following a 50% price increase in H1 of 2019 arising from initial drill results whose bonanza grades are flashy but very short and still lacking a structural framework that allows one to start visualizing tonnage. However, the geological context resembles that of the Timmins district in Ontario where splays from the crustal scale Porcupine-Destor fault in close association with conglomerate units are the hosts for high grade gold quartz veins. Aurion's 100,000 ha Finnish land position covers 80 km of the equivalent 125 km Sirkka shear zone within the Central Lapland greenstone belt of which the Risti project is a 100% owned discovery exploration focus while other parts are optioned out to B2 Gold and Kinross as homage to the prospect-generator-farmout model. The Proterozoic Central Lapland greenstone belt has a similar size to the Archean Abitibi belt but has only 9.1 million ounces gold identified compared with 83.6 million for the Abitibi belt. The biggest deposit is Agnico-Eagle's Kittila Mine which is not associated with the Sirkka Shear Zone. Since acquiring the Finnish property portfolio in 2014 from Dragon Mining ltd, a former ASX listing that now trades on Hong Kong and which operates gold mines in Sweden and Finland, Aurion has had two major seasonal price spikes since 2017 ($3.39 peak in 2017) based on an emerging high grade orogenic quartz vein gold system at the Risti project. The 2017 run enabled Aurion to raise $25 million including $15.9 million at $2.32 from Kinross Gold, while no financings were done in 2018. The goal is to outline a substantial bedrock source for a field of high grade boulders called Aurora found in 2016 which sparked the stock run in 2017. So far Aurion has intersected high grade veins, but has suffered seasonal winter slumps because the mineralization has not hung together to form a coherent zone that qualifies as a major discovery and the winter darkness of the Arctic location prevents helicopter support. Since drilling resumed in January 2019 Aurion has done two financings that raised $16.4 million: $6.4 million at $1.05 in April and an upsized $10 million bought deal at $1.50 in July led by Eric Sprott with a personal $5 million investment. Aurion has not allowed warrants since David Lotan emerged as the largest shareholder in early 2016 and became the financing engine behind Mike Basha's Finnish initiative after Aurion's failed effort as a Carlsbad backed prospect-generator in Nevada. So far the farmouts to B2Gold and Kinross have not generated anything newsworthy during the past two years. The focus for the 10,000 m 2019 drill program is the Aamurusko prospect within the Risti project. Upon completion of the July 2019 bought deal Aurion will have 88.8 million shares and more than $20 million working capital to fund a critical exploration season where the goal is give shape to a gold zone that can be systematically delineated. (Jul 10, 2019) |
| Jan 19, 2022 | Aurion B2Gold JV Extend Gold Mineralization at Helmi |
| Jan 17, 2022 | Expands Gold Mineralized Envelopes at Aamurusko, Further Results from Helmi Discovery (B2Gold JV) imminent |
| Dec 9, 2021 | Private Placement Brokered, Private Placement Non Brokered |
| Dec 9, 2021 | Joint Venture Extends Strike Length of Kutuvuoma Ikkari (Helmi) Discovery to 1.3 km |
| Nov 25, 2021 | Completes Brokered Offering and Non Brokered Participation by Kinross for Aggregate Proceeds of C$16.7 Million |
| Nov 23, 2021 | Property Asset or Share Purchase Amending Agreement |
| Nov 19, 2021 | Kinross Gold Agrees to Purchase Additional Shares to Maintain 9.98% Ownership Position |
| Nov 8, 2021 | Aurion Signs Definitive Option Agreement with Kinross on the Silaskaira Property |
| Nov 5, 2021 | Upsize of Brokered Private Placement to up to C$13.5 Million |
| Nov 4, 2021 | Brokered Private Placement for up to C$10.0 Million |
Issued
162,823,320 |
Price
$3.04 |
Working Capital
$13,461,678 |
Story Type
Discovery Exploration |
Diluted
197,659,320 |
Insiders
15.6% |
As of
8/31/2021 |
Key People
Hugh (Mac) Balkam (CEO), Carmelo Marrelli (CFO), John DeDecker (VP EX), M. Robert Myhill (VP FI), William R. Johnstone (Sec), |
| SV Rating: Fair Spec Value - Favorite - as of December 31, 2021 |
| Oct 14, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:16:42 |
| Oct 7, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| Aug 4, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:12:51 |
| Jul 7, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:13:34 |
| Jun 23, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:09:22 |
| Apr 14, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:18:20 |
| Mar 25, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:11:35 |
| Feb 3, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:24:49 |
| Dec 23, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:16:29 |
| Dec 10, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:10:21 |
| Oct 22, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| Sep 22, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| Sep 18, 2020 | Tracker: What's Next for Eskay Creek Mining Corp? |
| Jul 2, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:13:54 |
| Jun 29, 2020 | Tracker: Spec Value Rating for Eskay Mining Corp |
| Nov 13, 2019 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:11:40 |
| Nov 20, 2018 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:09:15 |
| Jul 30, 2018 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:12:20 |
| Jul 30, 2018 | Bottom-Fish Comment: SSR delivers an anomaly surprise at Eskay Mining Corp's SIB project |
| Jul 23, 2018 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:20:28 |
| May 17, 2018 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:18:16 |
| May 15, 2018 | Bottom-Fish Comment: Recommendation Strategy for Eskay Mining Corp |
| Aug 1, 2017 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:13:45 |
| Jul 10, 2017 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:10:41 |
| Apr 12, 2017 | Bottom-Fish Comment: Recommendation Strategy for Eskay Mining Corp |
| Dec 1, 1997 | Report Sept-Dec 1997: Kenrich Mining Corp - 1997 Annual Review |
| Oct 13, 1997 | Tracker 1997-40: Kenrich heads into post-season slump |
| Aug 18, 1997 | Tracker 1997-21: Kenrich - Sorting out the deal with Prime Resources Group |
| Dec 23, 1996 | Report Nov-Dec 1996: Kenrich Mining Corp - 1997 Bottom-Fish 100 |
| Jan 19, 2022 | Receives Long High Grade Assay Results from TV |
| Dec 8, 2021 | TV and Jeff Return Further Precious Metal Rich VMS Drill Intercepts for Eskay Mining |
| Dec 2, 2021 | Property Asset or Share Purchase Agreement |
| Dec 2, 2021 | Shares for Bonuses |
| Nov 12, 2021 | Enters into Amended Cost Sharing Agreement with Seabridge Gold to Finance Coulter Creek Access Road |
| Nov 8, 2021 | Encounters Broad Intercepts of Precious Metal Rich Stockwork Feeder Mineralization at TV Including 47.8m Grading 5.2 GPT Au Eq within 140.3m Grading 2.6 GPT Au Eq and 44.4m Grading 4.7 GPT Au Eq within |
| Oct 13, 2021 | Concludes Drill Program at Its Consolidated Eskay Precious Metal Rich VMS Project: Discovers Massive Sulfide Atop the TV Deposit |
| Sep 16, 2021 | Discovers Two New Large VMS Systems at Its Consolidated Eskay Project |
| Sep 3, 2021 | To Trade on OTCQX |
| Aug 23, 2021 | Provides Update on Drilling; Discusses Property Wide SkyTEM Data |
Issued
213,557,863 |
Price
$0.62 |
Working Capital
$16,210,051 |
Story Type
Feasibility Demonstration |
Diluted
231,594,051 |
Insiders
42.2% |
As of
9/30/2021 |
Key People
Martin Turenne (CEO), Peter M. D. Bradshaw (Chair), J. Christopher Mitchell (CFO), |
| SV Rating: Bottom-Fish Spec Value - Favorite - as of December 6, 2021: FPX Nickel Corp is a Good Spec Value rated Favorite at $0.50 as of December 31, 2021 based on the economic implications of a PEA completed in September 2020 which proposes to open pit mine the Baptiste deposit on the 100% owned Decar property in central British Columbia at a rate of 120,000 tpd for a 35 year mine life to produce an average 99 million lbs of nickel annually in the form of a 60%-65% ferro-nickel concentrate shipped directly to stainless steel makers. CapEx and life of mine sustaining capital were estimated at USD $1.67 billion and $1.1 billion with AISC of $3.12 per lb nickel. At a base case price of USD $7.75/lb nickel and 8% discount rate the PEA indicated an after-tax NPV of USD $1.72 billion, clearing the development hurdle where NPV should match or exceed CapEx, and an after-tax IRR of 18.3% which is sufficient for such a long-lived mine. Based on 231.6 million shares fully diluted, 100% net interest and a CAD:USD exchange rate of 1.25 this NPV translates into a future price target of $9.28. In April 2021 FPX raised sufficient capital to fund delivery of a PFS by mid 2023. The reason the stock price represents Good Speculative Value is because no nickel deposit consisting of 1.5 billion tonnes at an average grade of 0.122% nickel has ever been put into production. FPX Nickel Corp is a fabulous opportunity for any speculator who can understand why the Decar project is very different from every other nickel mine. The secret is in the nature of the grade, which is based on the Davis Tube Recovery assaying method which measures only the portion of a rock's nickel content that is recoverable through magnetic separation at a specified minimum grind size. At Decar the host rock is an ultramafic ophiolite body that has been serpentinized in a manner where nickel has alloyed with iron to form grains of natural stainless steel called awaruite. The flow-sheet is a simple three step process involving grinding, magnetic separation, and flotation of the concentrate to yield a ferro-nickel concentrate whose nickel content is 60%-65% with the rest iron and a minor 1% cobalt credit. There are no sulphides present and the concentrate can be fed directly into a stainless steel mill with the nickel content payable at 98% of the LME price though the iron and cobalt are not payable. The PEA assumes an 85% recovery but metallurgical studies done in 2021 indicate 90% recovery is achievable. Because flotation pulls off the magnetite as a by-product there is a potential market for it though the PEA assumes it will be part of the tailings which will represent no acid drainage problems. Market studies may enable FPX to include the magnetite waste product as a payable by-product in the PFS. The high magnesium content of the finely ground tailings offer an opportunity for carbon sequestration. Studies are underway to see if physical handling such as agitation can enhance the natural sequestration rate achieved by undisturbed tailings. Not only would Decar have a significantly lower carbon footprint than nickel derived from sulphide or laterite ores as a result of its simple flowsheet, but the Decar project has the potential to be carbon neutral which would make the ferro-nickel concentrate with its verifiably clean path of interest to stainless steel users seeking ESG credentials for their product inputs. FPX was able in early 2020 to demonstrate the conceptual possibility of making nickel and cobalt sulphate from the concentrate for the battery market and has a metallurgical study underway to determine if making battery grade sulphates is competitive with other methods of reprocessing refined nickel or extending the laterite flow-sheet. The outcome is expected in early Q3 of 2022; if viable the resulting verifiably clean nickel and cobalt sulphate supply becomes of interest to electric vehicles makers such as Tesla and Volkswagen among others. At this point it is not clear to what extent nickel and cobalt will be part of the EV battery configuration that becomes mainstream in 2030 and beyond, which is about when one might expect the Decar project to come on stream as a mine. This uncertainty may be a blessing for FPX Nickel. The high CapEx means that a major, not a junior, will develop the mine, but if the battery optionality becomes reality, FPX Nickel will be able to raise transitional capital from ESG focused funds or end users so that it can push the project beyond PFS into the feasibility and permitting stage to set up an auction for a buyout. The speculative question is when a mining giant like Rio Tinto or BHP with minimal exposure to nickel would make a pre-emptive move to buy out FPX Nickel. Or when an established nickel producer like Vale with battery grade sulphate ambitions might add Decar to its roster of Canadian nickel mines. The Baptiste deposit became the delineation focus in 2009 when Cliffs had Decar under option because outcrop was available and the area had already been logged. In 2021 FPX Nickel finally had a chance to mount a 9 hole 2,688 m drill program on the Van target 6 km from Baptiste higher up the mountain. The results yielded a 400-750 m wide by 750 m long by 225 m deep (vertical) tonnage footprint whose upper 70-100 m ran 0.14%-0.16% DTR nickel, better than for the Baptiste deposit. The higher grade portion of this slab represents 100-150 million tonnes. The zone is open to the west and south. During 2022 FPX will mount another 10 hole core drilling program to extend and infill the Van system on 200 m spacing to support a resource estimate. Since the Baptiste mining schedule only has a few early years averaging 0.13%-0.14% ore it is possible that the eventual mining plan starts with the Van deposit whose metallurgy can be fast-tracked using the Baptiste studies as a guide. The stock price was not rewarded in 2021 by this accomplishment which potentially boosts the economic value and definitely boosts the long term strategic value as a future supply of clean, possibly carbon neutral nickel. 2021 was a year when the FPX story kept getting better without price appreciation, a bummer for existing shareholders but a boon for newcomers. Part of the problem was that the April financing attracted a generalist US fund which became FPX's third largest shareholder but after a couple months got the willies and spent the rest of the year liquidating its position. FPX Nickel Inc is a Good Spec Value rated Favorite because at $7.75 base case nickel the PEA indicates a target price of $4.82 using a 10% discount rate and $13.62 using a 5% rate. At the $10.26/lb nickel price in mid January 2022 these numbers jump to $12.20 and $26.67. And if you dare to assume a long term $15/lb nickel price, the target prices jump to staggering levels of $26.12 and $51.30 per share. If you substitute the 0.14% Van grade as the LOM average the target prices at $10.26 per lb are $15.62 and $33.49. This is before any potential value add from making nickel and cobalt sulphate is included, or finding a market for the magnetite waste product. Now obviously the indicated after-tax NPV is not the proper value for a project whose economics are based on the 30%-35% uncertainty associated with a PEA. A project that is at a fully funded PFS stage according to the uncertainty ladder of the rational speculation model deserves a value of 25% to 50% of the ultimate NPV outcome which would knock our $12.20-$26.67 price targets at $10.26/lb nickel based on the PEA scenario down to a range of $3.00-$6.00 per share at a 10% discount rate and $6-$13 per share at a 5% discount rate. That implies FPX Nickel should be trading 500% higher than the $0.50 stock price at the end of 2021 where FPX Nickel Corp was a made a 2022 Favorite. The junior is executing all the tedious steps of a PFS such as metallurgical studies and geotechnical drilling, and given the homogenous nature of the Baptiste deposit, we should not expect any unpleasant technical surprises. The biggest risk is probably the anti-mining lobby which opposes any large scale mining operation and will not hesitate to mobilize local First Nations groups to oppose the permitting process. But given the dirty alternatives for nickel supply, the Decar project might end up being supported by thoughtful environmentalists and the First Nations in this infrastructurally good location who already are involved logging activities might like a long lived mine in their backyard. (Jan 18, 2022) |
| Jan 18, 2022 | Tracker: Spec Value rating for FPX Nickel Corp |
| Oct 21, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| Jul 28, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:10:30 |
| Jun 9, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:12:19 |
| Apr 8, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:24:30 |
| Apr 7, 2021 | Tracker: Spec Value Rating for FPX Nickel Corp (FPX-V) |
| Apr 7, 2021 | Tracker: What's Next for FPX Nickel Corp? |
| Mar 25, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| Mar 17, 2021 | Tracker: Bought deal funds FPX Nickel through delivery of PFS by end of 2022 |
| Nov 23, 2020 | Tracker: FPX Nickel destined to become highly leveraged proxy for nickel price |
| Nov 19, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:10:19 |
| Oct 15, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:09:50 |
| Sep 10, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| Sep 9, 2020 | Tracker: FPX Nickel publishes updated PEA for Decar nickel project |
| Aug 21, 2020 | Tracker: What's Next for FPX Nickel Corp |
| Aug 20, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:15:17 |
| Aug 18, 2020 | Tracker: What might the updated Decar PEA of FPX Nickel look like? |
| Jul 22, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:18:43 |
| May 14, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:15:15 |
| Feb 27, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| Feb 27, 2020 | Tracker: FPX Nickel to proceed with updated Decar PEA |
| Jan 9, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:13:59 |
| Jan 7, 2020 | Tracker: FPX Nickel confirms nickel sulphate can be made from Decar concentrate |
| Dec 19, 2019 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:19:28 |
| Dec 13, 2019 | Tracker: Spec Value Rating for FPX Nickel Corp (FPX-V) |
| Aug 23, 2019 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:17:20 |
| May 7, 2018 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:12:24 |
| May 2, 2018 | Bottom-Fish Comment: What do the rocks in Oman have to do with FPX Nickel? |
| Mar 2, 2018 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:07:10 |
| May 19, 2017 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:26:52 |
| May 15, 2017 | Bottom-Fish Comment: First Point to drill higher grade Baptiste southeast extension at Decar |
| Feb 3, 2017 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:00 |
| Jan 12, 2017 | SVH Tracker: Recommendation Strategy for First Point Minerals Corp |
| Nov 9, 2016 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:08:51 |
| Mar 23, 2016 | SVH Tracker: Recommendation Strategy for First Point Minerals Corp |
| Sep 10, 2015 | SVH Tracker: First Point finally back in control of its destiny with 100% Decar acquisition |
| May 22, 2015 | SVH Tracker: Recommendation Strategy for First Point Minerals Corp |
| Apr 14, 2015 | Excerpt from Express 2015-02: February-March Review - First Point |
| Mar 9, 2015 | SVH Tracker: Recommendation Strategy for First Point Minerals Corp |
| Sep 15, 2014 | Spec Value Hunter Comment: Understanding the importance of First Point's 1% NSR in Decar |
| Jan 10, 2022 | Appointment of Principal Geologist |
| Jan 6, 2022 | Final Results of Maiden Drill Program at Van Target Confirming Large Scale Footprint of Higher Grade, Near Surface Nickel Mineralization Open for Significant Expansion |
| Dec 8, 2021 | Pilot Scale Metallurgical Test Results Demonstrating Potential for Significant Increase in Nickel Recovery at Baptiste Project |
| Nov 15, 2021 | Van Target Drilling Results Confirming Significant Lateral Extension of Higher Grade, Near Surface Nickel Mineralization |
| Nov 2, 2021 | Testing Demonstrates Second Method for Enhanced Carbon Mineralization at Baptiste Nickel Project |
| Oct 25, 2021 | Commences Trading on the OTCQB Market in the United States Under the Trading Symbol "FPOCF" |
| Oct 19, 2021 | Confirms Significant New Discovery in Maiden Drilling at Van Target; First Hole Returns Among Highest Grade Near Surface Nickel Intervals in History of Decar Nickel District |
| Sep 20, 2021 | Completes Drilling Programs at Decar Nickel District in Central British Columbia |
| Sep 16, 2021 | Plans Work Program On 100% Owned Nickel Project 30 KM From FPX Nickel Corp |
| Jul 19, 2021 | Appointment of Manager, Environment and Government Affairs Randy MacGillivray, Former Regional Manager, Environment and Regulatory Affairs for the Mount Milligan, Endako, and Kemess Mines |
Issued
178,662,601 |
Price
$0.61 |
Working Capital
$9,599,070 |
Story Type
Feasibility Demonstration |
Diluted
196,551,197 |
Insiders
13.7% |
As of
9/30/2021 |
Key People
Robert Hinchcliffe (CEO), Robert D. B. Suttie (CFO), Rafael Solis (VP FI), Lawrence J. Strauss (VP CD), |
| SV Rating: Fair Spec Value - Favorite - as of December 31, 2021: Galway Metals Inc is a Fair Spec Value rated Favorite as of December 31, 2021 based on its efforts since 2016 to demonstrate the multi-million ounce district scale gold potential of the 100% owned Clarence Stream project in New Brunswick, and to show that the Estrades polymetallic VMS system in Quebec has significant resource expansion potential at depth and that the 31 km long property can yield an entirely new VMS discovery at the Newiska target about 10 km to the east. Tracker Feb 18, 2020 describes Galway's origin as a spinout from CEO Robert Hinchcliffe's Galway Resources Ltd which was bought out in 2012 for its property near Ventana's La Bodega gold discovery in Colombia and provides background for the Clarence Stream project. Tracker Aug 23, 2021 provides an overview of Galway's recent objectives for the Clarence Stream and Estrades projects. The 60,000 ha Clarence Stream project straddles 65 km of the Appalachian Gold Trend which stretches from the Carolinas through Newfoundland and Ireland into Scandinavia. The key structural feature at Clarence Stream is the east-west oriented Sawyer Brook Fault which cuts through Ordovician and Silurian metasediments that have been intruded by various stocks that served as the heat engines for creating quartz vein hosted stockwork and disseminated gold mineralization of the intrusion related gold system style. Since 2016 Galway has drilled about 130,000 m on top of the 60,000 m drilled by previous owners, most of it focused on the cluster of new zones discovered in late 2017 about 7 km southwest of the existing North and South zones for which 9,586,000 tonnes of 2.17 g/t gold OP and UG mineable (667,000 oz) was estimated in 2017 (M+I+I). Galway established a data cutoff at the end of 2021 for the purpose of delivering an initial resource estimate for the Adrian-GMZ-Richard-Jubilee zones in Q1 of 2022. An updated resource will also be calculated for the North-South Zones. This will be an important milestone which the market hopes will tally in the 1.5-2.0 million ounce range, though given the 8-12 week turnaround time for assays one should be happy with 1.0-1.5 million ounces and wait for more in a future update. Galway plans to drill 75,000 m in 2022 split between further expansion and infill drilling of the Adrian etc zones and wildcat drilling on the various soil and till gold anomalies established through property wide sampling during the past few years as part of Galway's goal to show Clarence Stream has 10 million plus ounce district scale gold potential. The Oak Bay-Tower Hill targets will receive attention, as well as the 3 km by 7 km soil anomaly that sits on top of a gabbroic intrusive complex to the south of the Adrian-Jubilee zone cluster. Galway will also earmark 25,000 m drilling for its Estrades VMS project where Titan geophysical surveys that can see 2,000 m deep suggest down-plunge potential beneath the existing Estrades resource (2018 I+I 3,696,000 tonnes 5.7% Zn, 1.03% Cu, 0.42% Pb, 93 g/t Ag, 2.59 g/t Au) as well as a potential major new VMS system at the Newiska target within a parallel rhyolite unit about 10 km to the southeast. Galway's 2021 effort to test Newiska, which can only be drilled in winter, failed to reach target depth before a warm winter shut down drilling. Galway will drill Newiska in Q1 of 2022 and test the main Estrades target later due to year round access. The IRGS nature of the Clarence Stream project is unlikely to deliver a discovery hole that moves the market unless it is for a brand new zone, but the VMS nature of the Estrades and Newiska targets could yield intersections with big discovery implications, especially in the case of Newiska which sits in the middle of a 31 km land package straddling the Casa Berard-Douay trend which has potential for both polymetallic and gold deposits. At the end of 2021 Galway Metals Inc had about $12 million working capital left, insufficient to fund its 2022 drilling plan, so additional financing will be needed by mid 2022. Galway had 178.7 million issued and 197.0 million fully diluted with no worrisome warrant overhang at the end of 2021. Insiders, including the chief geologist Mike Sutton who is key to sorting out the Clarence Stream zones, own just under 14% of the issued stock. In terms of management Galway is a well-rounded junior that knows how to promote, fund and execute its story. (Jan 18, 2022) |
| Jan 19, 2022 | Tracker: What's Next for Galway Metals Inc? |
| Jan 18, 2022 | Tracker: Spec Value Rating for Galway Metals Inc |
| Aug 25, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| Aug 23, 2021 | Tracker: What's Next for Galway Metals Inc |
| Jul 29, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:09:21 |
| Jul 2, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| Apr 30, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:14:40 |
| Feb 25, 2020 | Tracker: Galway delivers new evidence that grades get better at depth for Clarence Stream |
| Feb 20, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:22:24 |
| Feb 17, 2020 | Tracker: Spec Value Rating for Galway Metals Inc (GWM-V) |
| Dec 7, 2021 | Adrian and GMZ Gaps Return 5.8 g/t Au over 55.5m, and 8.1 g/t Au Over 17.5m |
| Nov 18, 2021 | Gap Drilling Intersects 1.3 g/t Au over 41.15m and 18.8 g/t Au over 6.0m, Closing Gap Between GMZ and Richard Zones |
| Oct 27, 2021 | Drills Oak Bay for the First Time First Hole Returns 6.0 g/t Au over 3.3m with Follow Up Holes Extending this New Zone 110 Metres at Clarence Stream |
| Sep 7, 2021 | Adrian and GMZ Gaps Return 38.6 g/t Au Over 7.5m, and 10.2 g/t Au over 6.0m |
| Sep 2, 2021 | Intersects 24.0m Massive Sulphides in Deepest Intersection Ever; 24.0 g/t AuEq Over 2.95m plus 16.1 g/t AuEq Over 3.0m; Cu Stringer Zones to 9.0m and up to 5.2% Cu Over 0.5m at 300m below Resource |
| Aug 26, 2021 | Appointment of New Director, Update to Insider Purchases and Listing on The OTCQB Exchange |
| Jul 26, 2021 | New Discovery Expands with 4.1 g/t Au Over 10.25m; 5.7 g/t Au Over 25.0m from Adrian Zone; GMZ East Gap Returns 1.7 g/t Au Over 10.0m |
| Jun 9, 2021 | Intersects 15.3 g/t Au over 18.5m, 2.0 g/t Au over 54.0m & 22.7 g/t Au over 3.5m at Clarence Stream |
| Apr 19, 2021 | Intersects 10.7 g/t Au, 22.8% Zn, 423 g/t Ag, 2.8% Cu, and 2.6% Pb Over 2.7 Metres at Its Estrades Project in Quebec |
| Apr 5, 2021 | Private Placement Brokered |
Issued
126,582,846 |
Price
$0.67 |
Working Capital
$10,593,122 |
Story Type
Feasibility Demonstration |
Diluted
164,917,006 |
Insiders
8.0% |
As of
9/30/2021 |
Key People
Peter Bell (CEO), Mark O'Dea (Chair), Lauren McDougall (CFO), Ian Neill (VP EX), Pamela White (Sec), |
| SV Rating: Bottom-Fish Spec Value - Favorite - as of December 14, 2021: Northwest Copper Corp is the combination of two former KRO Favorites, Serengeti Resources Inc and Sun Metals Corp, which merged on March 5, 2021 on terms where Serengeti undertook a 2:1 rollback and Sun Metals merged with the resulting company on a 0.215 NWST share for 1 Sun Metals share. Sun Metals was a Bottom-Fish Spec Value rated 2020 Favorite at $0.23 but it was downgraded to Poor Spec Value on Oct 2, 2020 when it became apparent that the Stardust project was not delivering anything new. Serengeti, in contrast, which was started as a Bottom-Fish Spec Value rated 2020 Favorite at $0.185 was upgraded on October 8, 2020 to a Fair Spec Value rated Favorite at $0.355 based on news that the East Niv copper-gold prospect had turned into a compelling porphyry target that would be drilled for the first time in 2021 (see Tracker October 8, 2020). The merger deal was announced on November 30, 2020. Serengeti was continued as a Fair Spec Value rated 2021 Favorite at $0.39 on December 31, 2020 which adjusted to a $0.78 cost base when Serengeti and Sun Metals merged. The merger created synergies in several areas which effective May 17, 2021 justify upgrading Northwest Copper Corp to a Good Spec Value rated 2021 Favorite at $0.80. The first issue was that neither Sun Metals' Stardust nor Serengeti's Kwanika projects in central British Columbia had sufficient critical mass to be developed as standalone mines, Stardust as an underground only high grade copper-gold-silver CRD style mine, and Kwanika as a combination open-pit/underground mine most of whose output would be underground mined. Stardust, which started off with the Canyon Creek resource of 2,970,000 tonnes at 1.27% copper, 1.68 g/t gold and 32.6 g/t silver, spurred excitement in 2018 with the late season discovery of the higher grade 421 Zone. Drilling over the next 2 years connected the 421 Zone to the shallower Canyon Creek zone and revealed that the 421 Zone tapered to a vertical depth of 900 m. Whatever additional zones exist, they will be deep and expensive to find. On May 17, 2021 Northwest Copper published an updated resource estimate which more than doubled the indicated and inferred resource to 7,806,100 tonnes at 0.97% copper, 1.24 g/t gold, and 21.8 g/t silver. The Central Zone at Kwanika has an open-pittable M+I+I resource of 110.3 million tonnes at 0.23% copper, 0.21 g/t gold and 0.77 g/t silver, and an underground mineable M+I+I resource of 203.6 million tonnes of 0.25% copper, 0.31 g/t gold and 0.92 g/t silver. Serengeti had published an updated PEA for a 15,000 tpd scenario in April 2017 that it planned to upgrade to a PFS by Q4 of 2019 with the help of an $8.2 million investment by South Korea's Daewoo (controlled by Posco) to earn 35%. However, the PFS was never delivered and Daewoo, which had vested for 35%, declined to participate in a 2020 expansion drill program. Daewoo was interested in Kwanika becoming the central processing hub for a number of smaller copper mines in the region, but is no longer interested. It is now looking for an exit for its diluting 33% Kwanika stake. The merger allows the Kwanika and Stardust properties to be consolidated into a single project, subject to buying out Daewoo, possibly through a paper deal later this year when NWST is trading at a better price. The two deposits are only 7 km apart. Although Stardust is CRD hosted massive sulphide mineralization while Kwanika's Central zone is disseminated porphyry style mineralization, initial metallurgical studies indicate similar flow-sheets with neither feedstock containing any deleterious elements. The new plan is to redo the 2017 Kwanika PEA as a 15,000 tpd processing facility fed with higher grade underground mined ore trucked from Stardust and blended with ore initially from the open-pitabble portion of the Central zone and ultimately with block-caved ore from the underground portion. NWST is starting a 7,200 m infill drill program costing $4.2 million to upgrade the shallower high grade underground portion of the Central Zone. The program will also test some satellite targets to the south of the Central Zone that Serengeti did not test in 2020. It will also do metallurgical studies to define a flow-sheet for the blended ore feeds. CEO Peter Bell expects it will cost $2 million to deliver a PEA by early 2022. The other main issue has to do with people. The driving force behind Sun Metals was Mark O'Dea, but he lost control of the narrative to Steve Robertson and Don McInnes who adopted a disclosure strategy of reporting only what happened 6 weeks ago and not outlining what was coming up. This alienated the Sun Metals shareholders who learned to sell before any news was due. Robertson and McInnes are not part of the NWST team. David Moore was the driving force behind Serengeti, but while he was excellent at telling the exploration story and executing technical work, he was a toiling geologist who had little stroke with the institutional audience needed to fund a feasibility demonstration project like Kwanika. Serengeti always just barely had enough money to fund its programs and not much success at getting positive market upticks to stick. As part of the merger deal O'Dea secured a $10.35 million bought deal for Sun Metals, and once the 2 companies were merged, he raised another $13 million in March 2021, bringing current working capital to about $21 million with 124.9 million issued and 146.4 million fully diluted. David Moore retired as CEO while remaining on the board, and Peter Bell, a geologist who worked 12 years for Newmont dealing with advanced projects, was brought in as the new CEO. Northwest Copper now has a well rounded management team that covers all aspects to operate a hybrid company engaged in feasibility demonstration for the Kwanika-Stardust project and discovery exploration at projects like East Niv which Dave Moore brought to the drill ready stage in 2020. While Kwanika-Stardust provides the fundamental value which allows Northwest Copper to serve as a proxy for the price of copper and gold, the blue sky resides with the 27,700 hectare East Niv play located about 30-40 km southwest of the Kemess Mine. East Niv, which is a grassroots play that has never been drilled, has a footprint similar to the Red Chris deposit and potential for high grade copper and gold porphyry mineralization. NWST will begin a 2,700 m drill program with a $2.9 million budget that could be dramatically expanded if early drilling yields discovery grades. Drilling can be done until the end of October. Although assay turnaround will likely be terrible, this style of deposit and associated mineralization provides good visual evidence that a discovery has been made. While continuing strength in gold and copper prices should pull NWST into the $1.50-$2.00, lift off related to hints of a discovery at East Niv could start in August. Sun Metals acquired a 49% interest in the Lorraine copper-gold project which sits between Kwanika-Stardust and East Niv when it acquired Lorraine Copper Corp in early 2018 to lock down its Stardust ownership. In late October 2020 Sun Metals secured a deal to acquire Teck's 51% for $1.5 million in cash or stock over 2 years and $7.5 million linked to milestones consisting of PEA, FS and a construction decision. The Lorraine property adjoins the Top Cat project Serengeti had under option and this will now be treated as a single 65,000 ha project. When Teck optioned Lorraine decades ago its exploration strategy was to look for large porphyry systems but the result, 35.2 million tonnes of 0.45-0.61% copper and 0.19-0.23 g/t gold (no longer 43-101 compliant after the ownership changes), was small. The property is prospective for high K calc-alkaline systems similar to Red Chris and Mt Polley which tend to have much smaller lateral than vertical footprints with copper-gold grades often increasing at depth. Lorraine-Top Cat needs to be revisited with a different exploration strategy, but for 2021 NWST is only allocating $800,000 for a re-compilation of existing data to set the stage for exploration in 2022. As far as the other projects in Northwest Copper's portfolio are concerned, the junior plans to get rid of those which do not have obvious size potential or have a sensitive location such as the OK deposit near Tofino. Overall NWST plans to spend $10-$13 million in 2021. Assuming gold and copper hold their current price levels, NWST should trend into the $1.50-$2.00 range as the Kwanika-Stardust PEA approaches in Q1 of 2022 and the market gets a better sense of what the combined mining operation will look like. East Niv has the potential to become a major new copper-gold discovery supporting a $1-$2 price on its own. The combination of these two distinct value creation tracks justifies a Good Spec Value rating at $0.80 which is currently implying a value of only $117 million for the company. (May 17, 2021) |
| Oct 28, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| May 19, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| May 18, 2021 | Tracker: What's Next for Northwest Copper Corp? |
| May 17, 2021 | Tracker: Spec Value Rating Overview for Northwest Copper Corp |
| Mar 31, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| Dec 3, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:27:10 |
| Oct 8, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:14:35 |
| Oct 8, 2020 | Tracker: New Spec Value Rating for Serengeti Resources Inc |
| Sep 4, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:08:15 |
| Sep 3, 2020 | Tracker: What's Next for Serengeti Resources Inc? |
| Jan 28, 2019 | Tracker: Spec Value Rating for Serengeti Resources Inc (SIR-V) |
| Jan 24, 2019 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:00 |
| Nov 14, 2018 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:09:04 |
| Oct 26, 2018 | SVH Tracker: Putting Serengeti's Kwanika drill results into context |
| Oct 23, 2018 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:00 |
| Jan 19, 2018 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:22:45 |
| Jan 15, 2018 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:11:33 |
| Oct 6, 2017 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:00 |
| Oct 5, 2017 | SVH Tracker: Recommendation Strategy for Serengeti Resources Inc |
| Aug 1, 2017 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:00 |
| Apr 7, 2017 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:05:10 |
| Nov 18, 2016 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:12:58 |
| Oct 27, 2016 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:03:42 |
| Oct 20, 2016 | SVH Tracker: Serengeti's UDS delivers Plan B exploration play for 2017 |
| Sep 22, 2016 | SVH Tracker: Serengeti's Kwanika IP target intact and more prospective |
| Sep 22, 2016 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:00 |
| Sep 15, 2016 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:15:48 |
| Aug 10, 2016 | SVH Tracker: Recommendation Strategy for Serengeti Resources Inc |
| Mar 31, 2008 | Tracker 2008-16: Spectacular Kwanika hole supports new theory but does not signal a sweet spot starter pit |
| Mar 26, 2008 | Tracker 2008-15: Is "too small" the inevitable outcome for Kwanika? |
| Jan 26, 2007 | Excerpt: Bottom-Fish Action Report - A lurching stairway to hell or a modulated stairway to heaven? |
| Jan 14, 2022 | Signing of Option Agreement, Unit Financing, Investor Relations Engagement and Stock Option Grant |
| Jan 14, 2022 | NorthWest Copper Enters Into Property Option Agreement |
| Jan 14, 2022 | Enters Into Property Option Agreement |
| Dec 30, 2021 | NorthWest Announces Annual Grant of Stock Options and Restricted Share Units |
| Dec 29, 2021 | To Consolidate 100% Interest in Kwanika Project |
| Dec 17, 2021 | Private Placement Brokered |
| Dec 2, 2021 | Closing of C$20 Million Bought Deal Private Placement |
| Nov 16, 2021 | Additional High Grade Cu Au Porphyry Results From Multiple Holes at Kwanika Including 100.5 Metres of 1.91% CuEq and 71.90 Metres of 2.64% CuEq |
| Nov 9, 2021 | C$20 Million Bought Deal Private Placement |
| Nov 8, 2021 | Drills Discovery Hole at East Niv Returning 0.56% CuEq Over 81.60 Metres Including 1.02% CuEq Over 14.80 Metres |
Issued
62,374,395 |
Price
$0.65 |
Working Capital
($1,347,212) |
Story Type
Feasibility Demonstration |
Diluted
90,446,097 |
Insiders
40.1% |
As of
9/30/2021 |
Key People
Joseph J. Ovsenek (CEO), Grant Bond (CFO), Kenneth C. McNaughton (VP EX), |
| SV Rating: Fair Spec Value - Favorite - as of December 14, 2021: P2 Gold Inc was made a Bottom-Fish Spec Value rated 2021 Favorite at $0.40 on December 31, 2020 based on its new role as the post-Pretium exploration vehicle for Joe Ovsenek and Ken MacNaughton, the former CEO and Exploration VP for Pretium and its high grade Brucejack gold project in the Golden Triangle. On February 23, 2021 P2 Gold expanded the focus with the acquisition of an all-season advanced project in Nevada's Walker Lane called Gabbs which hosts several copper-gold porphry style deposits. This is an expensive acquisition whose closing is contingent on P2 Gold completing a $16 million private placement consisting of 32 million shares at $0.50. Gabbs will become the new flagship project for P2 Gold which in the worst case will function as a copper-gold optionality story with the existing resource, but will initially be the focus of a major system rethink by the Ovsenek/MacNaughton team which will assess the deeper potential of what they believe is a gold dominated alkaline porphyry system different from the copper porphyries at Yerington. The Golden Triangle projects optioned during the summer of 2020 have heavy vesting obligations that kick in after the second year, so these will be subjected to make or break exploration programs over the next year. P2 Gold remains Bottom-Fish Spec Value rated while we wait for the $16 million financing to close, of which USD $5 million will go to close the Gabbs acquisition, and the rest will fund 2021 exploration programs. Along with several associates Joe Ovsenek and Ken MacNaughton purchased founder stakes through a 10 million share private placement at $0.10 (no warrants) in April 2020 following a 6:1 rollback of Central Timmins Exploration Corp, a mediocre junior which went public by IPO through PI Financial on Oct 16, 2018 with a group of claims on the fringes of the mining town Timmins on the Ontario side the Abitibi Greenstone Belt. They shifted the focus to northern British Columbia, first with a 70% option on the Silver Reef project north of Hazelton where the target is a silver-zinc-lead carbonate replacement system similar to the Silver Standard deposit near Hazelton. Then in early July 2020 P2 Gold optioned up to 70% of the Todd Creek and the BAM properties in the Golden Triangle from separate vendors. And for good measure they brought Silver Standard's mine finders Bud Hillemeyer and Perry Durning back into the fold by leasing on fairly easy terms their Lost Cabin and Stockade epithermal prospects in southeastern Oregon. P2 Gold can acquire 100% of Gabbs from the Waterton private equity group for USD $5 million and 15 million shares, with another $5 million due by the earlier of a PEA completion or 2 years. The 2,800 hectare Gabbs property adjoins to the north of the former Paradise Peak Mine operated as an open pit by FMC Gold from 1986-1994 which yielded 1.6 million oz gold and 24.1 million oz silver from a high sulphidation epithermal system aged at 22 million years. FMC sold Paradise Peak to Arimetco in 1995 which also owned the Gabbs property that FMC had explored in 1991-92. Arimetco went bankrupt in 1997, Paradise Peak became an abandoned reclamation site, and the Gabbs claims lapsed until Newcrest staked them in 2002 and explored Gabbs until 2008 when it withdrew from North America. Gabbs was acquired in 2011 by St Vincent Minerals Inc whose IPO plans never materialized and was acquired by Colin Bird's AIM listed ich Galileo Resources Plc in 2014 for CAD $4.3 million. Galileo sold Gabbs to Waterton in August 2016 for USD $2.5 million, so this deal with P2 Gold is shaping up as a big score for Waterton. The Gabbs property hosts three spatially distinct porphyry style deposits called Sullivan, Lucky Strike and Gold Ledge for which 43-101 open-pittable inferred resources have been estimated at 26.2 million tonnes of 0.72 g/t gold and 0.248% copper for oxides and 46.9 million tonnes at 0.43 g/t gold and 0.27% copper for sulphides. Most of the resource is split 54% Sullivan and 46% Lucky Strike which are about 3.5 km apart. The Gold Ledge zone, which sits in between, has a resource of only 100,000 tonnes, but sits above a significant IP chargeability high modeled at a depth of 450 m that has not been tested. The copper-gold mineralization is Cretaceous aged, younger than the middle Jurassic age of the Yerington cluster of substantially larger porphyry deposits 100 km to the west. The Yerington porphyries are of the calc-alkaline type that have low gold values, whereas the porphyries at Gabbs appear to be the high K calc-alkaline variety which have higher gold values. The Sullivan and Lucky Strike zones occur as sill-like monzonite intrusives within a gabbroic complex that has not been age dated. The depositional origin of these "sills" is not understood, and it is speculated that they may have linkage to an intrusive center beneath Gold Ledge. The Car Body zone to the south for which 2.8 million tonnes of 1.39 g/t gold has been estimated appears to be an unrelated, much younger low sulphidation epithermal system. The Gabbs property has had 494 holes drilled between 1970-2011, though 320 of these holes fail the QA/QC criteria needed for 43-101 resource reporting. The average depth of past drill holes was 94 metres. P2 Gold has proposed a CAD $6 million program for 2021 that will include additional geophysical surveys to cover the entire property and 20,000 m of drilling, the majority of which will be RC. The drilling will consist mainly of infill drilling to support a PEA by Q1 of 2022, but also include chasing the Sullivan and Lucky Strike zones beyond the pit limits that defined the Newcrest drilling in 2002-2008. P2 Gold will also test the deeper IP target to see if higher grade copper-gold mineralization is present that would lend itself to underground mining as can happen with high K calc-alkaline porphyries. Most of the property falls under BLM jurisdiction and P2 Gold will for now rely on 5 acre disturbance notice of intent drill permits. P2 Gold spent $900,000 on the Silver Reef project in 2020, mainly drilling the Main Zone with spotty results. The work included sampling which highlighted the Northwest Zone, which a magnetic survey that summer while the drilling was underway showed that it is part of a linear magnetic trend called the Northwest Zone trend which P2 Gold intends to drill in early summer so that it has results in hand by late August so that it can decide whether to drill additional holes in September or drop the option. The company's highest Golden Triangle hopes lie with the BAM property optioned from Charlie Greig who staked the claims when the most recent owner let them lapse. BAM is a copper-gold prospect discovered during the 1960s when Galore Creek, 35 km to the west, and Shaft Creek, 20 km to the northwest, were found. P2 Gold conducted sampling and geophysical surveys in 2020 which highlighted the Monarch Gold Zone which P2 Gold plans to drill in July with the hope that it represents a copper-gold porphyry system more like Galore Creek than Shaft Creek. The 32,000 hectare Todd Creek project owned by ArcWest Exploration has also been around for decades and is an expensive option, but Ovsenek and MacNaughton optioned it because they see potential for Brucejack style high grade gold zones which they know how to make or break over the next year. As far as the Oregon properties are concerned, Lost Cabin is a high sulphidation epithermal system which Camino had under lease for a while, and Stockade is a newer low sulphidation epithermal system generated by the Bud and Perry team for Tom Kaplan's Electrum group which was dropped without drilling to the hypothesized boiling zone depth. It is not clear that any money will be allocated to the Oregon prospects in 2021. If P2 Gold closes its $16 million private placement it will have 76.5 million issued and 87.5 million fully diluted. It will be sufficiently funded to advance the Gabbs project in Nevada while conducting make or break drill programs on the northern BC prospects during 2021. P2 Gold Inc is a Favorite that started as a people bet on Joe Ovsenek and Ken MacNaughton who started during the 1990's with Silver Standard and played key roles during the past decade at the Pretium spinout. It is not a slam dunk because the initial BC properties optioned for P2 Gold are exploration plays that may not deliver discoveries that justify maintaining the earn-in options. Gabbs is a more advanced project in a year-round jurisdiction where money spent on feasibility demonstration could show that Gabbs can be developed as a profitable open-pit, milling-flotation copper-gold mine, but where there is also exploration potential at depth which could lead to a much bigger and possibly richer underlying copper-gold system. The key milestone is closing that $16 million financing. (Mar 22, 2021) |
| Jan 17, 2022 | Private Placement Non Brokered |
| Jan 13, 2022 | Commences Drilling at Gabbs and Provides Project Update |
| Dec 24, 2021 | Provides Update on BAM Project |
| Dec 23, 2021 | Closes Financings |
| Dec 14, 2021 | Upsizes Flow Through Financing |
| Dec 9, 2021 | Financings |
| Dec 6, 2021 | EnviroMetal Reports High Gold Recoveries in Tests for P2 Gold's Gabbs Project |
| Dec 1, 2021 | Drilling at Gabbs Intersects 1.01 g/t Gold Equivalent Over 153.92 meters and Expands Sullivan Zone to the Southeast |
| Nov 9, 2021 | Drilling at Gabbs Intersects 2.30 g/t Gold Equivalent Over 48.77 meters and 2.63 g/t Gold Equivalent Over 38.10 meters |
| Oct 19, 2021 | Provides Update on Gabbs Project |
Issued
62,941,443 |
Price
$4.84 |
Working Capital
$49,405,756 |
Story Type
Feasibility Demonstration |
Diluted
65,512,343 |
Insiders
50.2% |
As of
9/30/2021 |
Key People
Laurel Sayer (CEO), Marcelo Kim (Chair), Darren Morgans (CFO), Heather Ennis (Sec), |
| SV Rating: Good Spec Value - Favorite - as of December 31, 2021: Perpetua Gold Corp, the new name for Midas Gold Corp effective Feb 18, 2021 following a 10:1 rollback on Jan 29, 2021 to allow a NASDAQ listing where it now trades with the symbol PPTA, has been a KRO Fair or Good Spec Value rated recommendation since September 6, 2013 based on its 100% owned gold-antimony Stibnite project in Idaho. On December 31, 2020 Perpetua was continued as a 2021 Favorite at $1.22 ($12.22 after adjusting for the 10:1 rollback) following the filing of a Draft Environmental Impact Statement by the USFS on Aug 14, 2020 and the company's delivery of a positive feasibility study on December 22, 2020. We are now waiting for the USFS to release a Final EIS in Q2 of 2021 followed by a draft Record of Decision in Q3 and a Final Record of Decision in Q4 which becomes the basis for ROD dependent permits and a construction decision in 2022 with production beginning in 2026 if CapEx of $1.3 billion can be raised. On April 5, 2021 Perpetua Gold Corp was confirmed as a Good Spec Value rated Favorite at $7.97 in Tracker Apr 5, 2021 which includes NPV and NPV/share based graphics for the Stibnite project using a close approximation of the parameters in the feasibility study's technical report and showing sensitivity to a gold price as high as $2,500. The feasibility study envisions a 15 year 20,000 tpd open-pit operation that mines three deposits whose refractory ore will be processed through a milling and pressure-oxidation complex that would yield 4,284,000 oz gold and 118 million lbs of antimony with a minor silver by-product. CapEx and Sustaining Capital were USD $1.292 billion and $295 million with OpEx at $26.45 per tonne. At base case prices of $1,600/oz gold, $20/oz silver and $3.50/lb antimony the after tax NPV was $1.347 billion at a 5% discount rate and IRR was 22.3%. At 54.9 million fully diluted that translates into a price target of USD $24.54 or CAD $30.91 at an exchange rate of 1.26 CAD:USD (earning: on April 1 Perpetua filed a short form base shelf prospectus to raise up to USD $100 million through a variety of instrument so fully diluted will rise if any financings are done - as of Dec 31, 2020 Perpetua had USD $22 million working capital). On these assumptions we should expect the stock to be in the CAD $20-$30 range by the end of 2021 if a Record of Decision is achieved. The current market pricing is signaling a thumbs down on that outcome, so in effect Perpetua is a bet on a permitting outcome. But it is a potentially lucrative bet that science rather than politics will dictate the outcome. I have constructed a cash flow model based on the ore schedule in the FS technical report which at the base case prices yields an after-tax NPV of USD $1.13 billion which is 16% lower than Perpetua's nameplate outcome mainly because I cannot emulate the complex depreciation-depletion treatment utilized in the FS. However, the DCF model is close enough that I can justify running it at spot prices as well as at much higher gold prices than allowed by 43-101 sensitivity range rules. The result at $1,728/oz gold, $25/oz silver and $5/lb antimony spot prices as of April 5, 2021 is USD $1.491 billion NPV at 5% with 31.1% IRR and $988 million at 10%. This translates into a mine approval contingent target of USD $27 at 5% and $18 at 10% which is CAD $34 and $23 at prevailing exchange rates. At $2,500 gold the after tax NPV jumps to USD $3.2 billion at 5% and $2.3 billion at 10%, or roughly USD $54 and $42 compared to the NASDAQ price of $6.46, or CAD $68 and $53 compared to the TSX price of $7.97. So if gold stays where it is and Stibnite secures mine approval, we can expect an approximate gain range of 200% to 300% reflecting the difference between 10% and 5% discount rates. On the other hand, if gold makes a 45% move to $2,500 which is a real price move reflecting global uncertainty that does not change the cost structure outlined in the FS, the equivalent gain range is 550% to 736%, more than double the price move in gold. Perpetua thus offers a double to triple if mine approval is achieved, and a five to seven fold gain if at the same time gold goes to $2,500. Perpetua is the best single advanced project leveraged gold bet among the juniors, but this has been made possible by the management discount created by the company's largest shareholder. John Paulson launched Midas Gold (Perpetua) into its permitting trajectory when he agreed in 2016 to fund most of a $55 million financing in the form of a zero coupon $55 million note convertible at about $0.35 ($3.50 post rollback). Getting mine approval will have cost USD $70 million on top of $125 million on feasibility demonstration. Shortly after the DEIS was filed in August 2020 John Paulson converted his note into a 20,935,732 share equity stake representing 44% of Perpetua's 47.6 million issued (54.9 million fully diluted). After the extended DEIS comment period ended in late October 2020 Paulson initiated a purge of the Midas management team, which he achieved on Dec 4, 2020 when Stephen Quin was replaced as CEO by Laurel Sayer whose job had been goodwill marketing while Quin's team did the engineering and technical work to support the DEIS and feasibility study. The independent board was replaced by Paulson's people who are either local politically connected people or connected to Paulson's other gold investments. Their skin in the game amounts to 10,500 shares plus lots of zero-risk stock options. John Paulson's political support for Donald Trump has become a liability, which Perpetua is trying to overcome by pitching the reclamation strategy underpinning the FS and the fact that antimony by-product supply from Stibnite would not only make the United States self-sufficient in terms of antimony rather than reliant on China and other unfriendly nations, but would even be able to help out other democracies which have aligned against autocracy. Furthermore, not included in the mining plan is a high grade antimony zone outside the pit shell which can be quickly accessed by adit via the pit by-pass tunnel that restores waterway access to the upstream watershed and which hosts at least as much by-product antimony as Stibnite would produce during its 15 year life. Antimony isn't overly important to emerging technologies, but if a molten salt technology being investigated as a storage system for renewable energy became viable, the Stibnite Mine would be the place to call. In a sense Perpetua Gold Corp is a short term bet that the politics of its major shareholder will not get in the way of mine approval, and, if that bet fails, a longer term bet that Trump or a clone regains the presidency in 2024. The alternative is a buyout by a major gold producer among whom Barrick Gold which already owns 11.3% is a primary contender because it may have at its disposal an alternative scenario where concentrate gets trucked to Nevada for roasting at one of its facilities with spare capacity. However, since the formation of the Nevada Gold JV with Newmont in 2019 whose purpose was to rationalize the infrastructure of their respective operations this opportunity may no longer be available. So Perpetua should be looked at as a future standalone mine open to all bidders which currently offers Good Speculative Value because of market skepticism about mine approval and the competence of the management team installed by John Paulson, a vocal Trump supporter, after forcing out in late 2020 Stephen Quin's team which had led Stibnite through the permitting cycle and delivered a feasibility study. (Apr 6, 2021) |
| Aug 19, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| Jul 28, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| Apr 8, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| Apr 6, 2021 | Tracker: Spec Value Rating for Perpetua Gold Corp (PPTA-T) |
| Apr 6, 2021 | Tracker: What's Next for Perpetua Gold Corp |
| Apr 5, 2021 | Tracker: Is Perpetua headed the way of the Roman noblewoman and her slave Felicity? |
| Dec 23, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| Nov 25, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| Aug 28, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:09:52 |
| Aug 28, 2020 | Tracker: What's Next for Midas Gold Corp? |
| Aug 27, 2020 | Tracker: US Forest Service accepts Draft EIS for the Stibnite gold-antimony project of Midas Gold |
| Aug 3, 2020 | Tracker: What's Next for Midas Gold Corp? |
| Jul 29, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:16:56 |
| Jul 27, 2020 | Tracker: What is Midas Gold worth at current gold prices? |
| Apr 15, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:17:24 |
| Mar 19, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:20:10 |
| Jul 19, 2019 | Tracker: Spec Value Rating for Midas Gold Corp (MAX-T) |
| Jun 6, 2019 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:22:41 |
| Feb 5, 2019 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:00 |
| May 17, 2018 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:00 |
| May 9, 2018 | SVH Tracker: Barrick invests $49 million in Midas Gold to secure 19.9% |
| Jan 10, 2018 | SVH Tracker: Recommendation Strategy for Midas Gold Corp |
| Jan 5, 2018 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:23:23 |
| Jun 30, 2017 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:14:31 |
| Jun 9, 2017 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:04:20 |
| Feb 24, 2017 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:00 |
| Jan 17, 2017 | SVH Tracker: Recommendation Strategy for Midas Gold Corp |
| Jan 5, 2017 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:00 |
| Mar 22, 2016 | SVH Tracker: Recommendation Strategy for Midas Gold Corp |
| May 26, 2015 | SVH Tracker: Midas raises $8 million to eliminate financing risk over next 12 months |
| Feb 15, 2015 | Excerpt from Express 2015-01: SVH 2015 January Review - Midas Gold |
| Feb 11, 2015 | SVH Tracker: Recommendation Strategy for Midas Gold Corp |
| Mar 31, 2014 | Spec Value Hunter Comment: Recommendation Strategy for Midas Gold Corp |
| Sep 6, 2013 | Spec Value Hunter Comment: Recommendation Strategy for Midas Gold Corp |
| Nov 15, 2021 | Appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers as Auditors |
| Aug 26, 2021 | Full Exercise of Over Allotment Option |
| Aug 17, 2021 | Closing of US$50 Million Public Offering |
| Aug 16, 2021 | Bulletin 2021 0817; Additional Listing |
| Aug 13, 2021 | Pricing of Public Offering of Common Shares |
| Aug 12, 2021 | Public Offering of Common Shares |
| Aug 9, 2021 | Antimony Supply Agreement For Ambri Battery Production |
| Jul 2, 2021 | U.S. Forest Service Advances Perpetua Resources' Proposed Action, Eliminating Alternatives, with Schedule Update for Targeted NEPA Completion |
| Jun 22, 2021 | Sun Valley Gold LLC: Disposition of Common Shares of Perpetua Resources Corp. |
| Jun 7, 2021 | Inclusion in the Russell 2000 Index |
Issued
50,378,619 |
Price
$3.87 |
Working Capital
$7,241,000 |
Story Type
Producer |
Diluted
54,227,138 |
Insiders
20.5% |
As of
9/30/2021 |
Key People
Cristiano Veloso (CEO), Felipe B. Paolucci (CFO), |
| SV Rating: Good Spec Value - Favorite - as of December 31, 2020: Verde Agritech Inc is a Good Spec Value rated Favorite because the junior controls a multi-billion tonne resource of a potassium silicate in Brazil which it is turning into an alternative to conventional potassium chloride for the Brazilian agricultural sector under the brand name Super GreenSand. The greenish rock, called "verdete slate" in Brazil and glauconite in technical circles, runs 9%-11% K2O compared to the 20%-30% K2O that the sylvite from evaporite beds in Saskatchewan runs. Sylvite is a combination of potassium chloride and ordinary salt which gets chemically upgraded to potassium chloride (KCl - 60%-65% K2O), the main fertilizer form applied to crops around the world. Its disadvantage is that crops to which it is applied do not qualify as organic and its salt nature makes it unusable for some crops. Its solubility poses an extra problem in Brazil where a good part of applied KCl disappears as runoff due to torrential rains during the main growing season which runs from November through May. Gluaconite's problem is that as a silicate the potassium is mineralogically locked up and not soluble. The verdete slate formation, which is up to 500 m thick and has a 120 km trend whose blue-green trace is visible from Google Earth, was recognized during the seventies when a process called ThermoPotash was developed to heat treat the material in a rotary kiln which made K2O available for crop uptake. ThermoPotash was a whole rock product that could be supplemented with other fertilizer ingredients such as limestone, but the physical volume that needed to be applied was 5-6 times the weight of KCl. ThermoPotash was never commercialized because its treatment cost could not compete against $100/t KCl, so the verdete slate was abandoned. But in 2008 when a supply squeeze pushed KCl to $1,000/t Cris Veloso, the Brazilian head of a junior that had just gone public to explore for gold in Brazil, staked the entire formation on behalf of the junior and proceeded to revive ThermoPotash as a possible solution to Brazil's 90% potash import dependency. NPK focused on a ThermoPotash PEA in 2009-2010, but in late 2010 shifted its focus to a breakthrough process developed at Cambridge that could convert the verdete slate into conventional KCl. The KCl PEA delivered in Q1 of 2012 showed promise and NPK worked on a feasibility study delivered in H1 of 2013 which proved not to be bankable because the equipment scale required200 tpd pilot plant studies. By then potash prices had dropped below $300/t at which price the Cambridge Process was no longer viable and the stock price crashed. NPK returned to the ThermoPotash plan to market the fertilizer for organic crops and those that could not handle KCl. Throughout this period NPK had run agronomic studies on different crops which demonstrated that ThermoPotash worked as well as KCl as a potassium source, but, it turned out, the control plots to which ground up but untreated verdete slate had been applied fared equally well. Closer investigation revealed that the interaction between micro-organisms and plant roots generated secretions which were somehow liberating the potassium tied up in the silicate. Veloso realized that the expensive effort to demonstrate the feasibility of treating the verdete slate with the ThermoPotash and Cambridge processes had been an unnecessary detour. Out of the realization that the verdete slate simply needs to be quarried, crushed, ground up and applied as a whole rock fertilizer was born the concept of Super GreenSand in 2016. In late 2017 NPK delivered a PFS which envisioned a 36 year mining plan which would start with 600,000 tpa and eventually scale up to 25 million tpa where Super GreenSand (SGS) would displace a large part of conventional KCl usage in Brazil. The financial model assumed an initial CapEx of USD $3 million with expansion costs funded by internal cash flow, which implied an after-tax NPV of USD $2 billion at an 8% discount rate and 290% IRR. The base case price was USD $250/t KCl cfr (landed in a Brazilian port), the lowest it has been since the 2008 runup. The simple flow-sheet made the cost readily identifiable but the key was a pricing model where the SGS would be sold at a price competitive with farmers buying KCl from regional warehouses. The market, however, has ignored the $50 plus price implied by this DCF analysis and the 48 million fully diluted NPK shares because this is not a story about developing a mine and selling the output into a deep market with a stable price, but rather one of developing an offtake market for a product that has never been commercially used by the agricultural sector. NPK built the 45 tph production facility in 2018 but did not get the 170,000 tpa quarrying permit until July which is the start of the planting season in Brazil which runs until November when the rainy season starts and crops are simply left to grow. NPK managed to secure orders for 50,000 tonnes but because of the usual commissioning problems was able to deliver only 29,000 tonnes in 2018. At the start of H2 2019 Verde Agritech is geared up to produce as much as 170,000 tonnes and is awaiting an increase in the mining permit to 400,000 tpa to install a second production line at the current facility. The speculative question is how big will NPK's order book get this summer? While the effectiveness of Super GreenSand is backed by agronomic studies, there is nothing like a farmer applying this alternative to KCl to a portion of the crop and observing first-hand how well it performs and how the costs compare. Some of the 2018 SGS was applied to soybean crops which have a 3-4 month growing cycle and those farmers will be in a knowledge position to make repeat orders. Other crops such as sugar cane and coffee have 12 month plus crop cycles, so it may be 2020 before those farmers are ready for more. The key will be expanded repeat business and new orders generated by word of mouth, with the government providing background support because reducing potash import dependency is a strategic goal for Brazil. Assuming NPK is able to achieve capacity production while maintaining a healthy profit margin, the next stage would be a permit for 1 million tpa and construction of a new facility at the mine site. That milestone will take a few years to reach, but by then the market will no longer be pricing NPK as a longshot market development story. The critical window will be H2 of 2019; will NPK fill its 170,000 tpa capacity with orders, will it deliver the product within the planting window, and will it show a profit in H1 of 2020 demonstrating that the model of cash flow funded internal growth is plausible? In March 2019 NPK completed a $1.7 million private placement consisting of 2,820,114 units at $0.60 of which the CEO Cris Veloso bought 912,416 units while other insiders participated on a smaller scale. The unit came with a half warrant exercisable at $1 for 2 years which no doubt some placees will clip and flip the stock when it comes free trading in July 2019 just as showtime begins for Verde Agritech Inc. (Jun 28, 2019) |
| Nov 17, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:01 |
| Jan 8, 2021 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:20:31 |
| Mar 26, 2020 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:14:20 |
| Nov 21, 2019 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:28:58 |
| Nov 21, 2019 | Tracker: Poor spin control makes Verde Agritech a bargain |
| Jun 28, 2019 | Tracker: Spec Value Rating for Verde Agritech Plc (NPK-T) |
| Jun 6, 2019 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:00 |
| May 22, 2018 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:08:17 |
| Mar 12, 2018 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:25:16 |
| Nov 28, 2017 | SVH Tracker: Verde Agritech spells out Super GreenSand game plan |
| Nov 24, 2017 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:15:23 |
| Jun 2, 2017 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:06:36 |
| May 3, 2017 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:14:54 |
| Feb 17, 2017 | Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com - 0:00:00 |
| Feb 13, 2017 | SVH Tracker: Recommendation Strategy for Verde Agritech Inc |
| Jul 22, 2016 | SVH Tracker: Verde Potash plans to market Super GreenSand as cat litter |
| Mar 21, 2014 | Spec Value Hunter Comment: Recommendation Strategy for Verde Potash plc |
| Mar 11, 2014 | Spec Value Hunter Comment: Verde Potash gets specialty coffee designation for ThermoPotash fed beans |
| Dec 3, 2013 | Spec Value Hunter Comment: Recommendation Strategy for Verde Potash plc |
| May 14, 2013 | Spec Value Hunter Comment: Verde Potash BFS needs 200 tpd demonstration plant for critical performance guarantees |
| Jun 27, 2012 | Spec Value Hunter Comment: Reuters tries to rattle Brazilian resource stocks with alarmist talk about resource nationalism |
| Mar 27, 2012 | Spec Value Hunter Comment: Analysis of the Verde Potash PEA |
| Jan 31, 2012 | Spec Value Hunter Comment: Verde Potash PEA flashes green light for game changer Cambridge Process |
| Nov 30, 2011 | Spec Value Hunter Comment: Verde Potash working on PEA for Cambridge process |
| Apr 25, 2011 | Spec Value Hunter Comment: Amazon changes name to Verde Potash Plc |
| Jan 16, 2011 | Express 2011-01: Research Report Focus - Amazon Mining Holding plc |
| Dec 21, 2010 | Spec Value Hunter Comment: Amazon files a patent application for a process that could be a game changer |
| Aug 11, 2010 | Spec Value Hunter Comment: Amazon study shows release rates comparable between KCl and ThermoPotash |
| Apr 14, 2010 | Spec Value Hunter Comment: Amazon pursuing marketing study ahead of PEA completion |
| Jan 29, 2010 | Spec Value Hunter Comment: Amazon's glauconite drilling outlines initial resource footprint |
| Dec 18, 2009 | Bottom-Fish Comment: Amazon reports initial drill results for Cerrado Verdete potash project in Brazil |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 2022 guidance and two year outlook |
| Nov 15, 2021 | Eearns $3.18 million in Q3 2021 |
| Nov 5, 2021 | Files Amended Interim Financial Statements and MD&A |
| Sep 27, 2021 | Revises Upwards Its 2021 Revenue Target, and Provides Update on Sales and Plant 2 Construction |
| Aug 16, 2021 | Increases revenue by 116% with a gross margin in 72% |
| Jul 2, 2021 | Results of the 2021 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders |
| Jun 28, 2021 | Updates Covid 19 Procedures for Upcoming Annual Meeting of Shareholders |
| Jun 2, 2021 | N Keeper technology to boost agricultural productivity and help fight climate change |
| May 17, 2021 | Grows Sales by 63% and Revises Upwards its 2021 Sales Target |
| Apr 7, 2021 | Chairman, Independent Lead Director and Composition of Board Committees |
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