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Recommendation History
 2007 Recommendations
    Publisher: Kaiser Research Online

 

The following is a chronological list of formal bottom-fish recommendations made during the course of the year. Recommendations consist of new bottom-fish buys, Spec Cycle Hold and Spec Cycle Sell declarations, bottom-fish status confirmations, priority upgrades and downgrades, bottom-fish dud closeouts, and old recommendation closeouts. The record also includes corporate changes such as name changes and amalgamations.

Note that the Gain reported for a new bottom-fish buy recommendations reflects the discount the stock was trading at from the buy range limit at the time of recommendation.

Action affecting the $1,000 bottom-fish position is taken when a bottom-fish is adopted, closed out, or subjected to a partial sell recommendation. Price reflects the prior closing price at the time of the recommendation. Gain reflects the combined value of the Net Cash and Net Stock position for that bottom-fish cycle on the date of the recommendation and including any action taken and using the Price. Status reflects the recommendation status of the bottom-fish following the recommended action.

Click the company's name to view a profile.

Bottom-Fish Recommendation Key
Top Priority Bottom-Fish Buy Confirm Top Priority Buy Spec Cycle Sell 100%
Medium Priority Bottom-Fish Buy Confirm Medium Priority Buy Spec Cycle Sell 75%
Low Priority Bottom-Fish Buy Confirm Low Priority Buy Spec Cycle Sell 50%
Extreme Risk Bottom-Fish Buy Confirm Extreme Risk Buy Spec Cycle Sell 25%
Spec Cycle Hold Confirm Spec Cycle Hold Closeout Sell 100%
Bottom-Fish buy recommendations are based on a strategy which involves buying stocks while they are quiet and selling them off in stages when the stock launches into a speculation cycle. The objective are 500% or better gains during a bottom-fish cycle whose duration can be many years. New bottom-fish buys are recommended as buys within one of a series of fixed bottom-fish buy ranges such as $0.10-$0.19, $0.20-$0.29, $0.30-$0.49, and so on because bottom-fish by nature often have poor liquidity and need to be accumulated over time within the bottom-fish range. All gain/loss calculations use the upper limit of the buy range as the cost base. The priority status of "top", "medium" and "low" reflects our sense for the timing urgency at the time of the initial recommendation with regard to the launch of a speculation cycle. The "extreme risk" priority is reserved for bottom-fish buys priced below $0.10. If circumstances change we may issue priority upgrades or downgrades for an open buy recommendation that is still within the bottom-fish buy range. Periodically we will issue a "confirm" recommendation to signal that the open bottom-fish buy recommendation remains in force. If a bottom-fish rises significantly above its buy range for fundamental reasons we interpret as a speculation cycle, we will convert the buy recommendation to a "Spec Cycle Hold 100%" status. During a speculation cycle we will may issue "partial sells" in increments of 25% at stages where we think the stock has overshot its fundamentals or faces a period of timeline dictated sideways movement. A bottom-fish cycle closes when either the partial sells add up to 100% or when a failed cycle is closed out with a Closeout Sell 100% recommendation. The latter is sometimes issued when the company has established a bottom well below the recommended accumulation range. At times we may issue a new bottom-fish buy at these levels at the same time as we close out the losing bottom-fish cycle. There is no relationship between Bottom-Fish and Spec Value Hunter recommendations. However, the rational speculation model on which the Spec Value Hunter recommendations are based is sometimes used to determine the timing of partial sells for bottom-fish cycles. It is also possible that at times we will issue a "partial sell" relating to the bottom-fish cycle at the same time as we issue a spec value hunter buy recommendation. This apparent contradiction is possible because the bottom-fishing strategy involves a long time horizon with a very large but unquantifiable gain objective, whereas spec value hunting involves shorter time horizons with specific price targets.
Spec Value Hunter Key
Good Absolute Spec Value - Buy Good Relative Spec Value - Buy
Confirm Good Absolute Spec Value - Buy Confirm Good Relative Spec Value - Buy
Fair Absolute Spec Value - Hold Fair Relative Spec Value - Hold
Poor Absolute Spec Value - Sell Poor Relative Spec Value - Sell
Confirm Poor Absolute Spec Value - Sell Confirm Poor Relative Spec Value - Sell
Closeout Absolute Spec Value Buy Cycle Closeout Relative Spec Value Buy Cycle
Spec Value Hunter recommendations focus on the absolute or relative value of a company's story. They are based on specific expectations with regard to timeline and outcome. An absolute spec value rating is based on how the current valuation of a company relates to its dream target potential within the context of the rational speculation model. A relative spec value rating indicates how a company's valuation compares to that of similar companies. It is thus possible for a company to represent poor absolute spec value and good relative spec value at the same time. When we issue a good speculative value buy we expect prices to increase fairly quickly to a level where the stock represents fair speculative value. In the case of good absolute spec value we judge the stock to be undervalued on the basis of its fundamentals alone. In the case of good relative spec value we judge the stock to be undervalued relative to comparable companies. A relative spec value rating signals that a company's valuation is vulnerable to market-driven changes unrelated to company fundamentals. In either case where we initiate a spec value buy cycle we expect the market to close the gap so that a fair speculative value rating is appropriate. The risk with relative spec value buys is that the market may end up pricing the comparable group lower, rather than pushing the stock with good relative spec value higher in line with the comparable group. A good or poor spec value rating of either the relative or absolute kind in our view represents an inefficiency in the market. When we assign a fair speculative value rating during the midst of a buy cycle it signals that we view the market pricing as efficient, and that higher prices will depend on the outcome of company specific fundamentals or changes in the macro market outlook. A closeout is issued to close a spec value buy cycle.
Click for Current Recommendation Status
Company Date
Price Recommendation Action Net
Cash
Net
Stock
Gain New Status
Creston Moly Corp (CMS-V) 12/11/2007 $0.42 New BF TP Buy $0.30-$0.49 Buy 2,041 @ $0.49 $0 2,041 0% BF TP Buy $0.30-$0.49
Avalon Ventures Ltd (AVL-V) 11/7/2007 $1.76 Good Absolute Spec Value Buy Buy 568 @ $1.76 $0 568 0% Good Absolute Spec Value Buy @ $1.76
Avalon Ventures Ltd (AVL-V) 11/7/2007 $1.76 Confirm Spec Cycle Hold 100%
$0 5,263 826% Spec Cycle Hold 100%
Fancamp Exploration Ltd (FNC-V) 10/26/2007 $1.85 Good Absolute Spec Value Buy Buy 541 @ $1.85 $0 541 0% Good Absolute Spec Value Buy @ $1.85
UC Resources Ltd (UC-V) 10/24/2007 $0.48 Good Relative Spec Value Buy Buy 2,083 @ $0.48 $0 2,083 0% Good Relative Spec Value Buy @ $0.48
Temex Resources Corp (TME-V) 10/24/2007 $0.80 Good Relative Spec Value Buy Buy 1,250 @ $0.80 $0 1,250 0% Good Relative Spec Value Buy @ $0.80
Geologix Explorations Inc (GIX-V) 10/12/2007 $1.99 Good Relative Spec Value Buy
$0 0 -100% Good Relative Spec Value Buy @ $1.99
MacDonald Mines Exploration Ltd (BMK-V) 9/18/2007 $0.37 Good Absolute Spec Value Buy Buy 2,702 @ $0.37 $0 2,702 0% Good Absolute Spec Value Buy @ $0.37
Probe Mines Ltd (PRB-V) 9/18/2007 $0.90 Good Absolute Spec Value Buy Buy 1,111 @ $0.90 $0 1,111 0% Good Absolute Spec Value Buy @ $0.90
Freewest Resources Canada Inc (FWR-V) 9/18/2007 $0.31 Confirm Spec Cycle Hold 100%
$0 3,448 7% Spec Cycle Hold 100%
Alamos Gold Inc (AGI-T) 9/5/2007 $5.71 Spec Cycle Sell 50% Hold 0% Sell 1,021 @ $5.71 $12,914 0 1,191% Closeout Hold 0%
Gitennes Exploration Inc (GIT-T) 7/31/2007 $0.45 Confirm BF TP Buy $0.30-$0.49
$0 2,041 -8% BF TP Buy $0.30-$0.49
Altius Minerals Corp (ALS-T) 7/30/2007 $20.50 Spec Cycle Sell 75% Hold 0% Sell 1,531 @ $20.50 $33,350 0 3,235% Closeout Hold 0%
Channel Resources Ltd (CHU-V) 7/18/2007 $0.20 New BF MP Buy $0.20-$0.29 Buy 3,448 @ $0.29 $0 3,448 0% BF MP Buy $0.20-$0.29
Channel Resources Ltd (CHU-V) 7/18/2007 $0.20 BF Cycle Closeout Sell 100% Sell 10,000 @ $0.20 $2,000 0 100% Closeout Hold 0%
Lithic Resources Ltd (LTH-V) 7/13/2007 $0.67 Good Absolute Spec Value Buy Buy 1,493 @ $0.67 $0 1,493 0% Good Absolute Spec Value Buy $0.67
Lithic Resources Ltd (LTH-V) 7/13/2007 $0.67 New Spec Cycle Hold 100%
$0 3,448 131% Spec Cycle Hold 100%
Gitennes Exploration Inc (GIT-T) 7/10/2007 $0.30 New BF TP Buy $0.30-$0.49 Buy 2,041 @ $0.49 $0 2,041 0% BF TP Buy $0.30-$0.49
Dynatec Corp (DY-T) 6/29/2007 $5.12 Spec Cycle Sell 100% Hold 0% Sell 2,041 @ $5.12 $10,450 0 945% Closeout Hold 0%
Geologix Explorations Inc (GIX-V) 6/28/2007 $1.71 Fair Absolute Spec Value Hold
$0 1,064 82% Fair Absolute Spec Value Hold @ $1.71
Cornerstone Capital Res Inc (CGP-V) 5/18/2007 $0.59 Good Relative Spec Value Buy Buy 1,695 @ $0.59 $0 1,695 0% Good Relative Spec Value Buy @ $0.59
Coastport Capital Inc (CPP-V) 5/18/2007 $0.50 New BF MP Buy $0.50-$0.75 Buy 1,333 @ $0.75 $0 1,333 0% BF MP Buy $0.50-$0.75
Radius Gold Inc (RDU-V) 5/14/2007 $0.62 New BF TP Buy $0.50-$0.75 Buy 1,333 @ $0.62 $0 1,333 0% BF TP Buy $0.50-$0.75
Hawthorne Gold Corp (HGC-V) 5/8/2007 $1.51 Good Relative Spec Value Buy Buy 662 @ $1.51 $0 662 0% Good Relative Spec Value Buy @ $1.51
Queenstake Resources Ltd (QRL-T) 4/9/2007 $0.16 Spec Cycle Sell 100% Hold 0% Sell 5,263 @ $0.16 $842 0 -16% Closeout Hold 0%
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NDM-V) 4/9/2007 $12.70 Spec Cycle Sell 100% Hold 0% Sell 2,041 @ $12.70 $25,921 0 2,492% Closeout Hold 0%
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVN-T) 4/9/2007 $14.16 Spec Cycle Sell 100% Hold 0% Sell 800 @ $14.16 $11,328 0 1,033% Closeout Hold 0%
White Knight Resources Ltd (WKR-V) 3/29/2007 $1.67 Spec Cycle Sell 100% Hold 0% Sell 3,448 @ $1.67 $5,758 0 476% Closeout Hold 0%
American Gold Capital Corp (AAU-V) 3/20/2007 $2.72 BF Cycle Closeout Sell 100% Sell 1,000 @ $2.72 $2,720 0 172% Closeout Hold 0%
Mountain Province Diamonds Inc (MPV-T) 2/20/2007 $4.30 Confirm Spec Cycle Hold 100%
$0 1,333 473% Spec Cycle Hold 100%
Metallica Resources Inc (MR-T) 2/15/2007 $5.30 Confirm Spec Cycle Hold 100%
$0 2,041 982% Spec Cycle Hold 100%
Mansfield Minerals Ltd (MDR-V) 2/15/2007 $3.43 New Spec Cycle Hold 100%
$0 2,041 600% Spec Cycle Hold 100%
Atna Resources Ltd (ATN-T) 2/15/2007 $1.60 Confirm Spec Cycle Hold 100%
$0 2,041 227% Spec Cycle Hold 100%
Solitario Resources Corp (SLR-T) 2/15/2007 $4.43 Confirm Spec Cycle Hold 100%
$0 1,000 343% Spec Cycle Hold 100%
Karmin Exploration Inc (KAR-V) 2/15/2007 $0.54 Confirm BF TP Buy $0.30-$0.49
$0 2,041 10% BF TP Buy $0.30-$0.49
JNR Resources Inc (JNN-V) 2/15/2007 $3.22 Spec Cycle Sell 100% Hold 0% Sell 2,041 @ $3.22 $6,572 0 557% Closeout Hold 0%
Gold-Ore Resources Ltd (GOZ-V) 2/15/2007 $0.80 Confirm Spec Cycle Hold 100%
$0 5,263 321% Spec Cycle Hold 100%
Geologix Explorations Inc (GIX-V) 2/15/2007 $0.94 Good Absolute Spec Value Buy Buy 1,064 @ $0.94 $0 1,064 0% Good Absolute Spec Value Buy at $0.94
Geologix Explorations Inc (GIX-V) 2/15/2007 $0.94 New Spec Cycle Hold 100%
$0 2,041 92% Spec Cycle Hold 100%
Impact Silver Corp (IPT-V) 2/15/2007 $1.67 New Spec Cycle Hold 100%
$0 2,041 241% Spec Cycle Hold 100%
Energold Drilling Corp (EGD-V) 2/15/2007 $1.80 Confirm Spec Cycle Hold 100%
$0 5,263 847% Spec Cycle Hold 100%
Chesapeake Gold Corp (CKG-V) 2/8/2007 $6.88 Good Relative Spec Value Buy Buy 145 @ $6.88 $0 145 0% Good Relative Spec Value Buy @ $6.88
American Gold Capital Corp (AAU-V) 2/8/2007 $2.71 Confirm Good Relative Spec Value Buy
$0 478 30% Good Relative Spec Value
Intl Enexco Inc (IEC-V) 1/26/2007 $3.24 Confirm Spec Cycle Hold 100%
$0 2,041 561% Spec Cycle Hold 100%
Stornoway Diamond Corp (SWY-T) 1/9/2007 $1.12 Confirm Spec Cycle Hold 100%
$0 3,448 286% Spec Cycle Hold 100%
Ashton Mining of Canada Inc (ACA-T) 1/9/2007 $1.15 Spec Cycle Sell 100% Hold 0% Sell 1,333 @ $1.15 $1,466 0 47% Closeout Hold 0%
Anooraq Resources Corp (ARQ-V) 1/9/2007 $1.17 Spec Cycle Sell 100% Hold 0% Sell 2,041 @ $1.17 $2,391 0 139% Closeout Hold 0%

 
 

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