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Kaiser Media Watch Blog - October 1, 2017 to October 31, 2017


Kaiser Media Watch Blog enables John Kaiser to share online content from other media he deems interesting or relevant to Kaiser Research Online audiences. He collects links to such content and writes a brief explanation. The KMW Blog gets updated during the evening KRO update. After a week or so the current KMW Blog gets archived and a new one is started. Tweets are sent with a link to the item in the KMW Blog when it is of particular interest. Right clicking the JK header allows one to share or copy a link directly to that specific blog post.

Posted: Oct 27, 2017JK: Discovery Watch Oct 27, 2017 with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser
Published: Oct 27, 2017HSC: Discovery Watch Oct 27, 2017: Was Adamera’s Rush Assay Worth the Cost?

Discovery Watch is a weekly 15-20 minute audio show sponsored by HoweStreet.com where Jim Goddard interviews John Kaiser about resource juniors with interesting exploration plays that have caught John's attention. The projects will not be limited to companies he has covered as Bottom-Fish and Spec Value Hunter picks. He will briefly describe each project's goal and its timeline. These projects will generally be exploration plays that have not yet turned into a discovery. The objective of Discovery Watch is to alert audiences to the existence of earlier stage exploration projects before they become big discoveries. Jim and John will periodically circle back to review the outcome. Should one of the projects deliver a discovery Jim and John will monitor that discovery on a more frequent basis. KRO will keep track of projects mentioned through Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com which will keep a running tab of Discovery Watch projects that includes links to the KRO profile for each company and project.

Discovery Watch Audio Links
Adamera Minerals Corp (ADZ-V)Cooke Mountain

Washington, United States

Gold
0:00
NV Gold Corporation (NVX-V)ATV

Nevada, USA

Gold
6:12
Carlin Gold Corp (CGD-V)Cortez Summit

Nevada, USA

Gold
12:43
Artemis Resources Ltd (ARV-ASX)Purdy's Reward JV

Western Australia, Australia

Gold
18:52
JK owns Novo; Artemis and Novo are SVH picks; Adamera is a bottom-fish pick

Posted: Oct 24, 2017JK: Allan Barry Laboucan and John Kaiser talk about Visualizing Aussie Wits 2.0 Outcomes
Published: Oct 24, 2017ABR: Allan Barry Laboucan and John Kaiser talk about Visualizing Aussie Wits 2.0 Outcomes

Direct YouTube link.

Allan Barry Laboucan and John Kaiser have a plan every couple weeks to go exploring on the Pilbara in search of Wits 2.0 candidates using a sceen share system. We will launch from the Pilbara Wits 2.0 Resource Center. Each episode is supposed to be no longer than 30 minutes but this one is an hour because neither of us yet fully understands the technology. So we beg the audience in advance for forgiveness and patience as we fumble around learning on the fly. The main theme is to explain my Outcome Visualization system as applied to the Purdy's Reward project of Artemis and Novo. The unrestricted version of the "Purdy's Reward Best Case Underground Scenario" displays the outcome without the detailed assumptions and explanatory notes, which are available in the members only version.

What John has done is imagine what that triangular piece of the Wits 2.0 pie that is the current exploration focus might look like as a deposit and what it might worth as a mine. The wild card is the grade. If the cost and tonnage assumptions are valid, Purdy's Reward on a 100% basis would have a negative value at 2 g/t gold, a USD $1.5 billion value at 5 g/t, and USD $4 billion value at 10 g/t gold in after-tax net present value terms using a 14.5% discount rate and $1,275 per oz gold price. At 30 g/t the NPV soars to USD $15 billion. The insanity of that last figure is intended to cool market expectations that the conglomerate bed at Purdy's Reward will average something like the grade obtained in early August from a single pinprick represented by a 542.3 kg mini bulk sample. What these numbers translate to in stock price terms depends on what net interest and fully diluted capitalization Artemis has when a bankable feasibility study supporting the OV assumptions is in hand. The arithmetic is done with the current figures, but one needs to keep in mind the dilution to fund the removal of uncertainty.

Even more important to understand is that the fair price worth paying today for that future outcome must account for the uncertainty of it being delivered. When John did an OV for the Ramsey Hypothesis of Arizona Silver Exploration Inc the end of the exploration cycle price target was $18 per share if Arizona SIlver's fully diluted did not change and it retained 100%. In the frenzy of anticipation some pumpers were pushing the claim that Kaiser believed Arizona Silver was an $18 bill. What he was really saying was that at the target drilling stage a fair value range a rational gambler should be willing to pay for a future prize with a CAD $630 million size was $0.19-$0.48. The market, however, when it gets excited starts behaving in an irrational manner captured in what we call the "market cycle S curve". At the target testing stage that range would have been a $0.48-$0.95 stock price range within which John did issue a Good Relative Spec Value Buy recommendation. When the drill results came back completely blank, the Ramsey Hypothesis was dead and the project did not advance to discovery delineation where the S Curve accelerates. Instead it was back to the grassroots target generation stage, from which it has recovered with new drill targets whose testing is now underway with considerably less fanfare. (See SVH TRacker - Sept 12, 2017).

The Cambridge Presentation on May 29, 2017, given the day before the bad news was released, explains the concept of outcome visualization and the rational speculation model. In the case of Purdy's Reward the project is already at the discovery delineation stage and vulnerable to the S Curve market dynamic. The Outcome Visualizations available through KRO are done exclusively by John Kaiser, but at the Share Collective they can be done privately by all the members and shared with the world if the member so chooses. The KRO OV is similar to John's TSC OV for Artemis' Purdy's Reward project. If you have not been registered as a beta tester you can only see ten clicks at this stage, of which the most useful one will be the "full calculation" for an OV which gives you all the assumptions. The point of the Share Collective is to empower everybody with the ability to construct a "back of the napkin" deposit and mining scenario based on how they interpret available evidence and where they think it will end up with additional exploration work. It can be kept private to guide one's own speculation strategy, or shared with everybody else. TSC hopes to go commercial as a subscription based service by the end of 2017, subject to additional funding. This makes it different from public forums like Hot Copper and Stockhouse.


Posted: Oct 20, 2017JK: Discovery Watch Oct 20, 2017 with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser
Published: Oct 20, 2017HSC: Discovery Watch Oct 20, 2017: Could a Junior Have Found The Biggest Gold Find Ever?

Discovery Watch is a weekly 15-20 minute audio show sponsored by HoweStreet.com where Jim Goddard interviews John Kaiser about resource juniors with interesting exploration plays that have caught John's attention. The projects will not be limited to companies he has covered as Bottom-Fish and Spec Value Hunter picks. He will briefly describe each project's goal and its timeline. These projects will generally be exploration plays that have not yet turned into a discovery. The objective of Discovery Watch is to alert audiences to the existence of earlier stage exploration projects before they become big discoveries. Jim and John will periodically circle back to review the outcome. Should one of the projects deliver a discovery Jim and John will monitor that discovery on a more frequent basis. KRO will keep track of projects mentioned through Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com which will keep a running tab of Discovery Watch projects that includes links to the KRO profile for each company and project.

Discovery Watch Audio Links
Azimut Exploration Inc (AZM-V)Eleonore South

Quebec, Canada

Gold
0:00
Adamera Minerals Corp (ADZ-V)Cooke Mountain

Washington, United States

Gold
5:05
Novo Resources Corp (NVO-V)Karratha

Western Australia, Australia

Gold
10:32
Artemis Resources Ltd (ARV-ASX)Purdy's Reward JV

Western Australia, Australia

Gold
24:09
JK owns Novo; Artemis and Novo are SVH picks; Adamera and Azimut are bottom-fish picks

Posted: Oct 18, 2017JK: Jay Taylor Media: Where Can We Find the Next Novo Resources?
Published: Oct 18, 2017JTM: Jay Taylor Media: Jay Taylor interviews John Kaiser about Novo and Nevada Exploration Inc

On October 17, 2017 Jay Taylor interviewed John Kaiser during a segment of his Turning Hard Times into Good Times Radio Show. The first 15 minutes deal with Novo Resources Corp and the Purdy's Reward update put out that morning. In the final 6 minutes Jay asks about another exotic exploration junior, Nevada Exploration Inc.

Jay Taylor Media Watch Audio Links
Novo Resources Corp (NVO-V)Karratha

Western Australia, Australa

Gold
0:00
Nevada Exploration Inc (NGE-V)South Grass Valley

Nevada, USA

Gold
15:39
JK owns shares of Novo and Nevada Expl

Posted: Oct 13, 2017JK: Discovery Watch Oct 13, 2017 with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser
Published: Oct 13, 2017HSC: Discovery Watch Oct 13 2017: Is Barrick Staking Out in the Wrong Direction in Nevada?

Discovery Watch is a weekly 15-20 minute audio show sponsored by HoweStreet.com where Jim Goddard interviews John Kaiser about resource juniors with interesting exploration plays that have caught John's attention. The projects will not be limited to companies he has covered as Bottom-Fish and Spec Value Hunter picks. He will briefly describe each project's goal and its timeline. These projects will generally be exploration plays that have not yet turned into a discovery. The objective of Discovery Watch is to alert audiences to the existence of earlier stage exploration projects before they become big discoveries. Jim and John will periodically circle back to review the outcome. Should one of the projects deliver a discovery Jim and John will monitor that discovery on a more frequent basis. KRO will keep track of projects mentioned through Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com which will keep a running tab of Discovery Watch projects that includes links to the KRO profile for each company and project.

Discovery Watch Audio Links
Nevada Exploration Inc (NGE-V)South Grass Valley

Nevada, United States

Gold
0:00
InZinc Mining Ltd (IZN-V)West Desert

Utah, United States

Zinc, Copper, Indium, Iron
8:01
Clean TeQ Holdings Ltd (CLQ-ASX)Syerston

New South Wales, Australia

Cobalt, Nickel, Scandium
12:49
Novo Resources Corp (NVO-V)Karratha

Western Australia, Australia

Gold
24:03
JK owns InZinc, Nevada Expl, Novo, Scandium Intl; InZinc, Novo and Scandium Intl are SVH picks; Nevada Expl is a bottom-fish pick

Posted: Oct 11, 2017JK: Allan Barry Laboucan and John Kaiser talk about Novo and Aussie Wits 2.0
Published: Oct 11, 2017ABR: Allan Barry Laboucan and John Kaiser talk about Novo and Aussie Wits 2.0

Allan Barry Laboucan and John Kaiser wander all over the map talking about what could turn out to be the biggest gold discovery ever, bigger than South Africa's Wits 1.0. Direct YouTube link.


Posted: Oct 11, 2017JK: Jay Taylor Media: Jay Taylor interviews John Kaiser about Novo Resources Corp
Published: Oct 10, 2017JTM: Jay Taylor Media: Jay Taylor interviews John Kaiser about Novo Resources Corp

On October 10, 2017 Jay Taylor did back to back live interviews on his Turning Hard Times into Good Times Radio Show with Brent Cook of Exploration Insights and John Kaiser about Novo Resources Corp and where the Wits 2.0 story stands today. Brent Cook and John Kaiser have similar views about the potential of Australia's Pilbara hosting a massive gold system whose scale and profitability could rival that of South Africa's Witwatersrand Basin. However, Brent and John are at oppposite ends of the gambling spectrum. Whereas John and Novo's Quinton Hennigh sit at the optimistic "dreamer" end, Brent sits at the Joe Friday "just the facts ma'am" cautious end of the spectrum.

Brent is correct that the Wits 2.0 scenario is still missing answers to 3 key questions: 1) Is the average gold grade in the Pilbara conglomerate beds high enough to support underground mining?, 2) Is the gold content of the conglomerate beds laterally and downdip extensive on a scale of hundreds of kilometres so that a widespread endownment in the billions of gold ounces is possible?, and, 3) Is there a reliable and cost effective way to measure the gold grade so that economic value of mining the beds can be quantified? With nearly 200 million shares fully diluted Novo has an implied value in excess of $1 billion for the 7,000 sq km plus of 100% owned ground, and double that for land subject to the 50:50 Artemis JV. This valuation is indeed "absurd" based on the available facts, but not if you make the leap of faith that these questions will deliver positive answers in the next 3-6 months. These questions are especially relevant to the dozens of juniors (and even majors) who turn out to own land on the Pilbara, especially where the 3 billion plus year old greenstone basement rocks have somewhat younger cover rocks, exactly those rocks every self-respecting junior studiously avoided unless looking for iron deposits.

The problem for the cautious rationalists is that the answers will emerge in small increments here and there, insufficient to be a definitive collective answer, but enough to coax somebody new from the sidelines, over and over again. The result is that Novo will probably never represent fair value, just as was the case with Dia Met and its Ekati diamond discovery in 1992-94 and the infamous Bre-X and its fictitious Busang gold discovery in 1995-97. Novo's valuation will always be ahead of the facts Joe Friday seeks before deciding. Speculators should thus treat any investment in Novo or the area play juniors as being at total loss risk! When you get that urge to "back up the truck", make sure you rewatch the Brent Cook interview. Furthermore, if the three questions get answered so as to confirm the Wits 2.0 scenario, don't sweat missing the boat, because the inflow of capital and media attention will generate the biggest bull market ever for resource juniors engaged in discovery exploration and run by technically competent groups with vivid imaginations like that of Quinton Hennigh.

To help investors better track this evolving story KRO has created the Pilbara Wits 2.0 Resource Center which includes a list of publicly listed companies that have property on the Pilbara. Because the mapped geology is not necessarily reliable at the property scale, and most of the juniors have done a terrible job providing detailed maps on their web sites, for now we are adding all juniors. As we get more detailed information we will highlight those with a shot at a piece of Wits 2.0, and get rid of those who have no chance at all.


Posted: Oct 9, 2017JK: Discovery Watch Oct 6, 2017 with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser
Published: Oct 6, 2017HSC: Discovery Watch Oct 6 2017: The Race for Korean Money

Discovery Watch is a weekly 15-20 minute audio show sponsored by HoweStreet.com where Jim Goddard interviews John Kaiser about resource juniors with interesting exploration plays that have caught John's attention. The projects will not be limited to companies he has covered as Bottom-Fish and Spec Value Hunter picks. He will briefly describe each project's goal and its timeline. These projects will generally be exploration plays that have not yet turned into a discovery. The objective of Discovery Watch is to alert audiences to the existence of earlier stage exploration projects before they become big discoveries. Jim and John will periodically circle back to review the outcome. Should one of the projects deliver a discovery Jim and John will monitor that discovery on a more frequent basis. KRO will keep track of projects mentioned through Discovery Watch with HoweStreet.com which will keep a running tab of Discovery Watch projects that includes links to the KRO profile for each company and project.

Discovery Watch Audio Links
Serengeti Resources Inc (SIR-V)Kwanika

British Columbia, Canada

Gold Copper
0:00
Fjordland Exploration Inc (FEX-V)South Voisey's Bay

Labrador, Canada

Nickel Copper Cobalt
7:12
Inventus Mining Corp (IVS-V)Pardo

Ontario, Canada

Gold
11:38
Novo Resources Corp (NVO-V)Karratha

Western Australia, Australia

Gold
16:10
JK owns Novo; Novo and Serengeti are SVH picks; Inventus is a bottom-fish pick

 
 

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