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Key Milestones And Success Probability Table for the Diamond Exploration Cycle
Project Status (Milestone Reached - Followup Work)
Theoretical Project Value (At $2B Upv)
Leverage
Odds
Chance (Probability)
Time Frame Arctic
Time Frame Non-Arctic
M0: Grassroots Land Position - Generating Targets
$10-20M
100-200
99-199:1
0.5-1%
1 Year
6 Mths
M1:Targets -Drilling For Kimberlite
$20-50M
40-100
39-99:1
1-2.5%
6 Mths
3 Mths
M2:Kimberlite-Testing For Diamonds
$50-100M
20-40
19-39:1
2.5-5%
6 Mths
3 Mths
M3:Diamondiferous Kimberlite - Mini-Bulk Sample Best Ones For Grade
$100-200M
10-20
9-19:1
5-10%
1 Year
6 Mths
M4:Diamond Grade - Bulk Sampling Best Ones For Commercial Value
$200-500M
4-10
3-9:1
10-25%
1 Year
6 Mths
M5: Grade & Value - Prefeasibility Study To Determine Economics
$500-1,000M
2-4
1-3:1
25-50%
6 Mths
6 Mths
M6:Economic Pipe - Permitting & Final Feasibility Study
$1-2B
1-2
0-1:1
50-100%
18 Mths
1 Year
M7:Mine Approval - Construction Leading To Production
$2B
1
0:1
100%
2 Years
1 Year
M8:Production - What Next?
Milestone #0 - Is The Land Position Prospective?
Milestone #0 Checklist
Best Answer
Implications Of Answer
Regional Potential
Is Property On A Craton?
Yes
Potential Very Low If Not
Is Craton Of Archean Age?
Yes
Preferable, But Maybe Not Necessary
Was There A Major Thermal Event?
No
Diamond Stability Field Intact
Is The Craton Exposed At Surface?
Yes
Maximum Range Of Pipe Age
If A Platform, What Is The Age Of The Surface Strata?
Variable
Limits Age Of Accessible Pipes
Have Kimberlites Been Found On Craton?
Yes
Craton Has Deep Mantle Roots
Are The Kimberlites Diamondiferous?
Yes
Populated Diamond Stability Field
Do Alluvial Diamond Deposits Exist?
Yes
Diamondiferous Kimberlite Present
Does The Craton Host World Class Diamond Pipes?
Yes
Where There Is One There Will Be More
What Percentage Of The Craton Does The Junior Control?
100%
More Is Better
Local Potential
Is Property On Thickest Part Of Craton?
Yes
Highest Diamond Potential
Is Property Close To The Craton Margin?
No
Lowest Diamond Potential
Does Area Drain Into Alluvial Diamond Bearing Rivers?
Yes
Local Diamond Source
Is Property Within A Regional Kimberlite Indicator Mineral Anomaly?
Yes
Highest Pipe Potential
Does The Anomaly Include Diamond Indicator Minerals?
Yes
Highest Diamond Potential
Do The Garnets From Till Have Kelyphitic Rims?
Yes
Did Not Travel Far From Source
What Is The Average Overburden Thickness?
Variable
Shallower Is Better
Are There Any Nearby Regional Structural Features?
Yes
Best Kimberlite Cluster Potential
Milestone #1 - Generating Kimberlite Targets
Milestone #1 Checklist
Best Answer
Implications Of Answer
Is Target Within An Indicator Mineral Train?
Yes
Kimberlite Source Nearby
Is The Target At The Head Of A Train Or Dispersion Fan?
Yes
Kimberlite Pinpointed
Is The Glacial History Well Understood?
Yes
Greater Confidence For Inferred Head
Does The Train Include Diamond Indicator Minerals?
Yes
Kimberlite May Be Diamondiferous
Do The Indicator Minerals Include Eclogitic Garnets?
Yes
May Have Eclogitic Diamonds
Do The Indicator Minerals Include G10 Pyrope Garnets?
Yes
May Have Peridotitic Diamonds
Does The Target Have A Geophysical Signature?
Yes
Kimberlite Pinpointed
Is The Geophysical Target Supported By Multiple Data Sets?
Yes
Reduce Risk Of False Anomalies
How Deep Is The Top Of The Geophysical Anomaly?
Variable
Shallower Is Better
Does Non-Outcropping Target Coincide With A Topographical Low?
Yes
Preferentially Weathered Or Gouged Out
Is There A Cluster Of Targets?
Yes
Kimberlites Occur In Clusters
Are The Targets Close To A Structural Feature?
Yes
Better For Deep Rooted Intrusives
Milestone #2 - Hitting A Kimberlite Pipe
Milestone #2 Checklist
Best Answer
Implications
Is It A Group 1 Kimberlite?
Yes
Best Diamond Potential
Does It Have Crater Facies?
Yes
Pipe Intact, Greatest Tonnage Potential
Does It Have Diatreme Facies?
Yes
Good Tonnage At Depth Potential
Does It Have Hypabyssal Facies?
Variable
Could Be A Dyk Or Root Zonee
How Big Is The Pipe'S Surface Area?
Variable
Bigger Is Better For Tonnage
How Deep Was Kimberlite Intersected?
Variable
Deeper Means More Tonnage
How Deep Is The Top Of The Kimberlite?
Variable
Shallow Is Better For Open-Pitting
How Accessible Is The Kimberlite?
Variable
Accessibility Dictates Sampling Ease
What Is The Tonnage Limit For The Kimberlite?
Variable
Bigger Is Better
Tonnage Estimates For Craters And Diatremes
Surface Area
Crater Depth (m)
Diatreme Depth (m)
Ha
Acres
Diameter
100
200
300
100
200
300
1
2.5
113
1,675,000
3,350,000
5,025,000
2,500,000
5,000,000
7,500,000
2
4.9
160
3,350,000
6,700,000
10,050,000
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
5
12.4
252
8,375,000
16,750,000
25,125,000
12,500,000
25,000,000
37,500,000
10
24.7
357
16,750,000
33,500,000
50,250,000
25,000,000
50,000,000
75,000,000
20
49.4
505
33,500,000
67,000,000
100,500,000
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
30
74.1
618
50,250,000
100,500,000
150,750,000
75,000,000
150,000,000
225,000,000
50
123.5
798
83,750,000
167,500,000
251,250,000
125,000,000
250,000,000
375,000,000
100
247.0
1128
167,500,000
335,000,000
502,500,000
250,000,000
500,000,000
750,000,000
Use This Table To Estimate A Circular Pipe'S Size Potential. Note That The Crater Numbers Assume Angled Walls While The Diatreme Assumes A Cylindrical Shape. If You Know The Diameter (Metres) Of A Circular Target, Calculate The Hectare Area As Follows: 0.8 X Diameter Squared Divided By 10000, Or Use The Diameter Column In The Table.
Milestone #3 - Demonstrating Diamond Content
Milestone #3 Checklist
Best Answer
Implications
Is The Pipe Diamondiferous?
Yes
Necessary Condition
What Is The Macro Reporting Standard?
Variable
Sieve Based Square Mesh Sizes Best
Are Micro Diamond Counts Based Only On Longest Dimension?
No
If Yes, Management Ignorant Or Flaky
Does Company Divide Micro Weight By Sample Weight To Get Grade?
No
If Yes, Mgmt Ignorant About Diamonds
Is Sample Large Enough To Be Meaningful?
>100 Kg
Best Is 300 Kg Or More
Are There Counts For 0.1-0.5, 0.5-1.0 & >1.0 Mm Sieve Ranges?
Yes
Can Compare Size Curve To Others
Has Petrographic Work Been Done On Sample Interval?
Yes
Need To Be Aware Of Facies And Phases
Is There Evidence Of Facies Or Magmatic Phase Differences?
No
If Yes Micro Diamond Data Distorted
How Does Size Distribution Curve Look?
Shallow
Compare With Hearne Or Snap Lake
What Percentage Of Macros Are Fragments?
0%
Less Distortion Of Size Profile
Have Any Individual Stones Been Identified?
Yes
Shows Good Size Profile
What Is The Weight Of The Larger Stones?
Variable
Presence Of Big Stones Is Good
What Is The Weight Of The 1 Mm Plus Fraction?
Variable
The More The Better
Are Many Of The Micro Diamonds Coloured?
No
Yes Could Mean Poor Quality Macros
What Is The Breakdown Of Crystal Types?
Variable
Prefer Majority Octahedra
Is There Evidence Of Resorption?
No
No Loss Of Diamond Weight
Milestone #4 - Getting A Grade By Mini-Bulk Sample
Milestone #4 Checklist
Best Answer
Implications
What Was The Screen Size Used To Recover Diamonds?
1.5 Mm
Stones Below That Size Aren'T Commercial
What Was The Largest Stone Recovered?
Variable
Bigger Is Better
Was The Pipe Geometry Defined By Delineation Drilling?
Yes
Can Estimate Resource Tonnage
Has The Internal Geometry Been Defined?
Yes
Grade And Value Of Geologic Units Varies
Was There Grade Variation Between Sample Locations?
No
Want Uniform Diamond Distribution
What Was The Crystal Type Breakdown?
100%
Octahedrons Are Best
Is The Parcel Large Enough For Valuation?
Yes
Give
Early Value Indication
What Does The Stone Size Distribution Profile Look Like?
Variable
Gradual Size Frequency Decline Desired
How Many Stones Were Recovered?
Variable
Gives Average Stone Size
What Percentage Of Stones Were Clear & Colourless?
100%
Indicates Gem Quality
What Percentage Of Weight Was Clear & Colourless?
100%
Can Reveal Quality-Size Skewing
Square Mesh Micro Diamond Size Distributions
Bulk Grade
Core Kg
<0.5 Mm
#/1000 Kg
.5-1.0 Mm
#/1000 Kg
>1.0 Mm
#/1000 Kg
Winspear Snap Lake
1.78 Ct/T
1,201
3,730
3,106
815
679
44
36.6
Mpv Tuzo
2.20 Ct/T
278
642
2,309
40
144
15
54.0
Mpv Hearne
1.71 Ct/T
300
680
2,267
62
207
21
70.0
Mpv 5034
1.64 Ct/T
548
2,335
4,261
92
168
35
63.9
Mpv Tesla
0.35 Ct/T
245
174
710
14
57
0
0.0
Plot The Normalized Counts Against Size Range Using A Log Scale For The Counts. The Higher The Curve And The Shallower The Slope, The Better. Plot New Square Mesh Micro-Diamond Results And Compare To The Above To Get A Feel For Grade Potential. Do Not Use Longest Dimension Based Counts - Their Correlation With Macro Grade Is Random.
Milestone #5 - Getting A Grade And Value
Milestone #5 Checklist
Best Answer
Implications
What Is The Grade Of The Pipe?
Variable
Higher Is Better
Are There Zones With Major Grade Differences?
Variable
High Grade Could Help With Payback
What Is The Total Value Of The Diamond Parcel?
Variable
Higher Is Better
If A Modeled Value Was Given, What Is The Error Margin?
<10%
Beware Of Big Error Margins
Does The Size And Spacing Of Bulk Sample Reflect Pipe Size?
Yes
Larger Pipes Require Bigger Samples
Is The Value Skewed By A Few Exceptional Stones?
No
Isolated Stones Statistically Irrelevant
What Is The Value Percentage Attributable To 0.75+ Ct Stones?
100%
Big, Quality Stones Always In Demand
Is The Value Distributed Evenly Over The Size Spectrum?
Variable
All Stone Sizes Are Contributing
What Is The Quality-Size Profile Of The Pipe?
Variable
Want To See Potential For Big Stones
Is There A Deterioration Of Quality With Increasing Size?
No
Gem Quality % Must Be Stable
Milestone #6 & #7- Completing A Pre-Feasibility Study And Securing A Development Permit
Milestones #6-7 Checklist
Best Answer
Implications
Is The Junior Carried From Here Onward?
Yes
No Financing Dilution Risk
What Pipes Are Candidates For Production?
Variable
How Many Need To Be Mined Simultaneously?
One
Less Permitting Hassle
What Will Be The Production Rate Of The Milling Facility?
Variable
Will The Operation Be Underground Or Open-Pit Mining?
Open-Pit
Lower Cost
How High Is The Stripping Ratio?
Low
Beware Of Deep Overburden
What Will Be The Operating Cost?
Variable
What Will Be The Capital Cost?
Variable
Higher In Remote, Sensitive Settings
Has A Project Description Been Filed?
Yes
Permitting Underway
Are There Any Sticky Environmental Obstacles?
No
Is The Area Subject To Native Land Claims?
No
Is There A Title Risk?
No
Is Approval Likely And How Long To Get It?
Yes
Less Than 18 Months Is Good
Milestone #8 - Production Startup
Milestone #8 Checklist
Best Answer
Implications
Does The Junior Receive Diamond Production In Kind?
Yes
Can Capture Source Premium
Is A Diamond Marketing Deal In Place?
Yes
Is There Potential For A Source Branding Premium?
Yes
Canadian Diamonds Preferred
How Does Production Grade And Value Compare With Projections?
