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| Corporate Profile: Kaminak Gold Corporation Publisher: Kaiser Research Online Author: Copyright 2010 John A Kaiser
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Kaminak Gold Corp (KAM-V)
Kaminak Gold Corp, led by President and CEO Eira M. Thomas and Chairman John Robins, is focused on the 100% owned Coffee gold project in the Yukon for which the junior released a feasibility study on Jan 6, 2016 which envisions a 14,000 tpd open pit heap leach operation involving 4 pits with a 10 year mine life for a resource of 46.4 million tonnes of 1.45 g/t gold. The project had a CAD CapEx of $317 million, sustaining capital of $161 million, and OpEx of $24.10/t with an all-in cost of USD $775 per oz gold. With a recovery of 86.3% the Coffee project was projected to produce 1,862,000 ounces gold. At an exchange rate of 1.282 CAD:USD and base case price of $1,150 gold the FS yielded an after-tax NPV of CAD $445 million at 5% and IRR of 37% with a 2 year payback period. The plan for 2016 was to proceed with permitting and further feasibility work plus conduct exploration on the 80% portion outside the project area at a cost of $24 million to be funded from $33 million working capital as of the end of April 2016. On May 12, 2016 Kaminak accepted a friendly takeover bid from Goldcorp on the basis of 1 Kaminak share for 0.10896 Goldcorp shares which priced the offer at $2.62 per share at a 40% premium to market which priced Kaminak at about CAD $520 million. |
Key to Understanding IPV Charts and Spec Value Hunter Tables
An IPV Chart is a graphical presentation of a Spec Value Hunter table that has been constructed according to the Rational Speculation Model developed by John Kaiser. The IPV Chart allows speculators to identify which projects offer poor, fair or good speculative value in both absolute and relative terms. The speculative value depends on the project stage, the project's implied value as calculated by the company's fully diluted capitalization, stock price and net project interest, and the dream target deemed appropriate for the project. A dream target is what a project would be worth in discounted cash flow terms once in production. |
Green background indicates the dream target judged appropriate for this play by John Kaiser - otherwise unranked. |
Poor Speculative Value - |
Fair Speculative Value - |
Good Speculative Value - |
Note: narrow arrows indicate IPV is outside the fair value channel but within 25% of the fair value limits |
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Coffee | | 100% WI | Canada | 7-Permitting & Feasibility |
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Coffee 43-101 Economic Study (USD except where noted otherwise) |
FS | Jan 6, 2016 |
| JDS Energy & Mining, Angus Christie, PhD | Coffee |
Mining Scenario | TR | Mining Costs |
Mining Type: | OP |
| Cost Currency: | CAD |
Processing Type: | Heap Leach |
| Capital Cost: | $317,000,000 |
Operating Rate: | 14,000 tpd |
| Sustaining Cost: | $161,000,000 |
Operating Days: | 365 |
| Operating Cost: | $24.10/t |
Strip Rate: | 5.7 |
| BC Cash Cost per Unit: USD | $520/oz Au |
Mine Life: | 10 years |
| BC Cash Cost Net By-Products: USD | $520/oz Au |
LOM Tonnage: | 46,400,000 t |
| BC All-In Cost Net By-Prod: USD | $777/oz Au |
Est Startup: |
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| Spot All-In Cost Net By-Prod: USD | $777/oz Au |
Production Potential |
| Metal 1 | Metal 2 | Metal 3 | Metal 4 |
Metal: | Au |
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Grade: | 1.45 g/t |
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Recovery: | 86.3% |
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Annual Output: | 184,000 oz |
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LOM Output: | 1,862,000 oz |
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Base Case Price: | $1,150/oz |
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Spot Price: | $1,315/oz |
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Base Case NSR: | $41.41/t |
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Spot NSR: | $47.35/t |
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Base Case Valuation |
Reported Valuation Currency: | CAD |
| Pre-Tax NPV: | $762,000,000 |
Discount Rate: | 5% |
| After-Tax NPV: | $455,000,000 |
Total Base Case NSR USD: | $41.41/t |
| Pre-Tax IRR: | 50% |
Total Spot NSR USD: | $47.35/t |
| After-Tax IRR: | 37% |
Annual Pre-Tax Cash Flow Base Case and Net CF/FDSH USD: | $88,449,000 | $0.53 | Pre-Tax Payback: | 1.5 y |
Annual Pre-Tax Cash Flow Spot and Net CF/FDSH USD: | $118,818,200 | $0.69 | After-Tax Payback: | 2.0 y |
Enterprise Value CAD : | $507,514,560 | $2.60/sh | Share Price: | $2.69 |
Note: 0 |
Comparative Valuations using Life of Mine Averages |
Discount Rate: | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% |
Base Case Pre-Tax NPV USD: | $716,345,669 | $525,199,702 | $353,167,030 | $236,652,030 |
Base Case Pre-Tax Net NPV/Sh USD: | $4.04 | $2.35 | $1.81 | $0.90 |
Premium BC PT NPV over EV: | $2.01 | $0.33 | ($0.21) | ($1.12) |
Spot Pre-Tax NPV USD: | $1,020,037,669 | $748,535,809 | $522,808,473 | $369,187,672 |
Spot Pre-Tax Net NPV/Sh: | $5.59 | $3.49 | $2.68 | $1.58 |
Premium Spot PT NPV over EV USD: | $3.57 | $1.47 | $0.66 | ($0.44) |
The comparative NPV calculations assume constant annual cash flow based on the life of mine average annual payable production and CapEx spent in year one. The operating cost includes the LOM sustaining capital. Due to details such as ore scheduling these NPV figures may differ from those of the 43-101 economic study. |
After-Tax Valuations using Spot By-Product Prices |
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Coffee 43-101 Economic Study (USD except where noted otherwise) |
PEA | Jun 10, 2014 |
| JDS Energy | Coffee |
Mining Scenario | TR | Mining Costs |
Mining Type: | OP |
| Cost Currency: | CAD |
Processing Type: |
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| Capital Cost: | $305,000,000 |
Operating Rate: | 13,200 tpd |
| Sustaining Cost: | $145,500,000 |
Operating Days: | 365 |
| Operating Cost: | $22.53/t |
Strip Rate: | 4.0 |
| BC Cash Cost per Unit: USD | $505/oz Au |
Mine Life: | 11 years |
| BC Cash Cost Net By-Products: USD | $505/oz Au |
LOM Tonnage: | 53,000,000 t |
| BC All-In Cost Net By-Prod: USD | $748/oz Au |
Est Startup: |
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| Spot All-In Cost Net By-Prod: USD | $748/oz Au |
Production Potential |
| Metal 1 | Metal 2 | Metal 3 | Metal 4 |
Metal: | Au |
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Grade: | 1.23 g/t |
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Recovery: | 88.0% |
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Annual Output: | 167,000 oz |
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LOM Output: | 1,859,000 oz |
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Base Case Price: | $1,250/oz |
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Spot Price: | $1,315/oz |
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Base Case NSR: | $43.33/t |
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Spot NSR: | $45.58/t |
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Base Case Valuation |
Reported Valuation Currency: | USD |
| Pre-Tax NPV: | $522,000,000 |
Discount Rate: | 5% |
| After-Tax NPV: | $330,000,000 |
Total Base Case NSR USD: | $43.33/t |
| Pre-Tax IRR: | 33% |
Total Spot NSR USD: | $45.58/t |
| After-Tax IRR: | 26% |
Annual Pre-Tax Cash Flow Base Case and Net CF/FDSH USD: | $100,200,460 | $0.59 | Pre-Tax Payback: | 1.8 y |
Annual Pre-Tax Cash Flow Spot and Net CF/FDSH USD: | $111,063,810 | $0.64 | After-Tax Payback: | 2.0 y |
Enterprise Value CAD : | $507,514,560 | $2.60/sh | Share Price: | $2.69 |
Note: |
Comparative Valuations using Life of Mine Averages |
Discount Rate: | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% |
Base Case Pre-Tax NPV USD: | $949,775,159 | $676,556,121 | $457,965,470 | $312,938,545 |
Base Case Pre-Tax Net NPV/Sh USD: | $5.22 | $3.14 | $2.35 | $1.30 |
Premium BC PT NPV over EV: | $3.20 | $1.11 | $0.33 | ($0.72) |
Spot Pre-Tax NPV USD: | $1,069,272,009 | $762,494,678 | $522,109,216 | $362,378,235 |
Spot Pre-Tax Net NPV/Sh: | $5.83 | $3.58 | $2.68 | $1.56 |
Premium Spot PT NPV over EV USD: | $3.81 | $1.56 | $0.65 | ($0.47) |
The comparative NPV calculations assume constant annual cash flow based on the life of mine average annual payable production and CapEx spent in year one. The operating cost includes the LOM sustaining capital. Due to details such as ore scheduling these NPV figures may differ from those of the 43-101 economic study. |
After-Tax Valuations using Spot By-Product Prices |
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