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KMW Blog November 21, 2019: MIF Presentation Nov 16, 2019: Bracing for the End Time

Posted: Nov 21, 2019JK: KMW Blog November 21, 2019: MIF Presentation Nov 16, 2019: Bracing for the End Time
Published: Nov 21, 2019MIF: KMW Blog November 21, 2019: MIF Presentation Nov 16, 2019: Bracing for the End Time

Direct YouTube link for John Kaiser MIF Talk

Direct YouTube link for MIF Panel

MIF Company Presentation and Interview Video Links
Nevada Exploration Inc (NGE-V)

The MIF presentation Bracing for the End Time revolves around multiple meanings for the idea that the light at the end of the tunnel is shrinking. The primary concern is with the viability of the resource juniors as a thriving eco-system, a situation made worse in 2020 when every last Boomer has turned 55 and thus, according to most Canadian brokerage firms, should not be allowed to buy resource juniors because they are "unsuitable". This forces Boomers to open discount brokerage accounts where they are on their own, no longer able to rely on experienced brokers for advice about what counts as good, fair or poor value in a resource junior. Post Boomers, namely everybody born after 1964, in turn know little about the resource juniors, have generally come to view mining as something bad, and ignore gold as something for cranky old people. The situation is further complicated by the emerging conflict between Boomers, symbolized by the oldest Boomer Donald Trump, and the Post Boomers symbolized by Greta Thunberg, the champion for doing something about climate change, which I portray as a runaway tram in my graphic depicting the classic moral problem about whose interests to sacrifice. The Boomers, facing their own mortality, are pretty much resigned to an End Time outlook, and, even when they acknowledge that climate change is a real problem with human causes, are skeptical that anything can be done to stop it, so why sacrifice any of their well being on a hopeless cause whose outcome they will not live long enough to experience? I do offer the concept of light-weighting with a focus on niobium for steel and scandium for aluminum as something harmful to neither group, but I am of the view that short of a grand willingness by the Boomers to behave more like their parental Greatest Generation than the Me Generation, Post Boomers cannot escape the sense that the light at the end of the tunnel is shrinking for them too.
I then make the case that gold has become apolitical in that it is no longer about hedging against the fiat currency debasement and hyper-inflation that big government is supposed to generate, but rather that it has become a proxy for a deep uncertainty about the future. In fact the traditional gold bug Boomers who have historically sustained the resource juniors as a leveraged proxy for gold, are for now quite ambivalent about gold, for they have pledged their allegiance to Trump, and intuitively understand that a thumbs up for gold is a thumbs down for Trump, something they are not, for now at least, prepared to do. That would explain the failure of the resource juniors to track gold's uptrend this year, which itself is tracking rising uncertainty about where Trump's policies are leading the future. But that opens a window of opportunity for liberal Boomers and most of the Post Boomers to discover gold as a way they can hedge against the End Times uncertainty. However, since I am not predicting the apocalypse, just a dramatic repricing of gold as an asset class into the $2,000-$3,000 range similar to what happened in the late seventies, which is only a 33% to 100% gain from the current level, gold hardly seems to be worth the bother. But I go on to point out that in the absence of inflation such a real price move has a leveraged impact on resource juniors that can generate 10-bagger plus gains. But Post Boomers will want to feel that they understand this game, have an edge, and, something the Boomers never craved, be influencers in this resource junior game. And so I conclude with a brief outline all of my Share Collective startup and its role in enabling the crowd to visualize the size of the prize and showing what the fair value of that outcome is at the current stage of a project. But this is something I already do within my Kaiser Research service. The next step for the Share Collective is to build a stadium so that everybody can see how members of the crowd are thinking about the future, and in that very act of being seen, have the capacity to influence the behaviour of the market and the rest of the crowd. It isn't enough to make gambling on fundamental outcomes for resource juniors rational, but once a consensus fair value range has been established by the wisdom of the crowd, it becomes possible to bet on the behaviour of the crowd within that range while we wait for the next "news" event from the junior.
The final slide points at Nevada Exploration Inc as an example of how a junior could deliver a 100-bagger over time if it discovers a clone of the 5-6 million ounce Cortez Hills deposit. And, based on the presentation James Buskard gave about NGE right after mine, namely offering the possibility that South Grass Valley could host the equivalent of the 80 million ounce North Carlin District, I can even allow myself to dream about a 1,000-bagger (Kaiser owns shares of Nevada Exploration Inc). It is this sort of story which should be of interest to the Post Boomers, especially when it becomes possible to quantify the size of such a prize and relate it to the current market price of the resource junior.
The very last boilerplate slide states that the current $450 per annum membership fee will be available only until December 31, 2019. During 2020 I will be working on a new web site to replace the current one which is over 15 years old. Because it is an information portal fed by the offline database which I maintain and which also feeds the Share Collective, updating that will be very complicated and I have no idea how long it will take. While I work on the new site I will continue to provide the current web site with its service of Spec and Bottom-Fish value ratings for those members who renew before the deadline with one change. I will use my discretion to unrestrict selected Trackers after a short period during which KRO members benefit exclusively from them. The current policy is to keep it all permanently restricted. If you want to be on board with a KRO membership during 2020, subscribe or renew by December 31, 2019.


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