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 Key and Definitions of Bottom-Fish and Spec Value Hunter Recommendations
    Publisher: Kaiser Research Online
    Author: Copyright 2014 John A Kaiser

 
Bottom-Fish Recommendation Key
Top Priority Bottom-Fish Buy Confirm Top Priority Buy Spec Cycle Sell 100%
Medium Priority Bottom-Fish Buy Confirm Medium Priority Buy Spec Cycle Sell 75%
Low Priority Bottom-Fish Buy Confirm Low Priority Buy Spec Cycle Sell 50%
Extreme Risk Bottom-Fish Buy Confirm Extreme Risk Buy Spec Cycle Sell 25%
Spec Cycle Hold Confirm Spec Cycle Hold Closeout Sell 100%
Bottom-Fish buy recommendations are based on a strategy which involves buying stocks while they are quiet and selling them off in stages when the stock launches into a speculation cycle. The objective are 500% or better gains during a bottom-fish cycle whose duration can be many years. New bottom-fish buys are recommended as buys within one of a series of fixed bottom-fish buy ranges such as $0.10-$0.19, $0.20-$0.29, $0.30-$0.49, and so on because bottom-fish by nature often have poor liquidity and need to be accumulated over time within the bottom-fish range. All gain/loss calculations use the upper limit of the buy range as the cost base. The priority status of "top", "medium" and "low" reflects our sense for the timing urgency at the time of the initial recommendation with regard to the launch of a speculation cycle. The "extreme risk" priority is reserved for bottom-fish buys priced below $0.10. If circumstances change we may issue priority upgrades or downgrades for an open buy recommendation that is still within the bottom-fish buy range. Periodically we will issue a "confirm" recommendation to signal that the open bottom-fish buy recommendation remains in force. If a bottom-fish rises significantly above its buy range for fundamental reasons we interpret as a speculation cycle, we will convert the buy recommendation to a "Spec Cycle Hold 100%" status. During a speculation cycle we will may issue "partial sells" in increments of 25% at stages where we think the stock has overshot its fundamentals or faces a period of timeline dictated sideways movement. A bottom-fish cycle closes when either the partial sells add up to 100% or when a failed cycle is closed out with a Closeout Sell 100% recommendation. The latter is sometimes issued when the company has established a bottom well below the recommended accumulation range. At times we may issue a new bottom-fish buy at these levels at the same time as we close out the losing bottom-fish cycle. There is no relationship between Bottom-Fish and Spec Value Hunter recommendations. However, the rational speculation model on which the Spec Value Hunter recommendations are based is sometimes used to determine the timing of partial sells for bottom-fish cycles. It is also possible that at times we will issue a "partial sell" relating to the bottom-fish cycle at the same time as we issue a spec value hunter buy recommendation. This apparent contradiction is possible because the bottom-fishing strategy involves a long time horizon with a very large but unquantifiable gain objective, whereas spec value hunting involves shorter time horizons with specific price targets.
Spec Value Hunter Key
Good Absolute Spec Value - Buy Good Relative Spec Value - Buy
Fair Absolute Spec Value - Hold Fair Relative Spec Value - Hold
Poor Absolute Spec Value - Sell Poor Relative Spec Value - Sell
Closeout Absolute Spec Value Buy Cycle Closeout Relative Spec Value Buy Cycle
Spec Value Hunter recommendations focus on the absolute or relative value of a company's story. They are based on specific expectations with regard to timeline and outcome. An absolute spec value rating is based on how the current valuation of a company relates to its dream target potential within the context of the rational speculation model. A relative spec value rating indicates how a company's valuation compares to that of similar companies. It is thus possible for a company to represent poor absolute spec value and good relative spec value at the same time. When we issue a good speculative value buy we expect prices to increase fairly quickly to a level where the stock represents fair speculative value. In the case of good absolute spec value we judge the stock to be undervalued on the basis of its fundamentals alone. In the case of good relative spec value we judge the stock to be undervalued relative to comparable companies. A relative spec value rating signals that a company's valuation is vulnerable to market-driven changes unrelated to company fundamentals. In either case where we initiate a spec value buy cycle we expect the market to close the gap so that a fair speculative value rating is appropriate. The risk with relative spec value buys is that the market may end up pricing the comparable group lower, rather than pushing the stock with good relative spec value higher in line with the comparable group. A good or poor spec value rating of either the relative or absolute kind in our view represents an inefficiency in the market. When we assign a fair speculative value rating during the midst of a buy cycle it signals that we view the market pricing as efficient, and that higher prices will depend on the outcome of company specific fundamentals or changes in the macro market outlook. A closeout is issued to close a spec value buy cycle.
 
 

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