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KMW Blog Jan 24, 2017: Metals Investor Forum Jan 20, 2017: Betting on Discovery Exploration

Posted: Jan 24, 2017JK: Metals Investor Forum Jan 20, 2017: Betting on Discovery Exploration
Published: Jan 20, 2017YouTube: MIF Jan 2017: Betting on Discovery Exploration

On January 20, 2017 I gave a presentation entitled Betting on Discovery Exploration at the Metals Investor Forum in Vancouver organized around current picks by newsletter writers Gwen Preston, Jay Taylor, Jordan Roy-Byrne, Brien Lundin, Eric Coffin, Joe Mazumdar and myself which is now available as a YouTube video. I first talk about where the 4 core narratives stand and how to play them along with examples of juniors at the conference. Then I talk about the problem of how one makes intelligent bets on discovery exploration outcomes, following which I briefly touch on the obstacles facing the juniors today. Finally I outline a startup project of which I am the conceptual founder, Andy Greig, former head of Bechtel's global mining unit, is the initial backer, and an Australian IT firm is the development partner. I explain how it will be a disruptive solution to the structural problems that are suffocating resource juniors. For a more detailed description of the "outcome visualization" concept I suggest the presentation A Crowd-Sourced Model for Valuing Exploration Projects I gave at Mines and Money in Toronto last September. We plan to start beta testing in Q2 and possibly launch by the end of 2017. Anybody interested in seeing the OV concept in action in a single member form should check out the KRO OV section.

The mood at the MIF and following Cambridge conferences was more bullish than I have seen since 2011, with plenty of investors now showing up who missed last year's surprise rally because they were not foolish diehards like myself. That rally was tied to gold's uptrend which ended in mid August and almost overnight turned the junior market dead cold. While gold's rebound at the start of 2017 has been a factor behind the January Effect, the uncertainty about what good or bad the new president of the United States will do has broadened the reasons to be optimistic about the resource sector. Now a much larger audience is entering the resource junior market, attracted by the relatively lower valuations created by the late summer slump of last year's surpirise turnaround and a bigger level of comfort that we are standing ahead of a 2-5 year resource junior boom. I am betting that discovery exploration is making a big comeback, because people understand that there are no particularly good reasons to expect substantially higher real metal prices other than supply disruptions caused by geopolitical chaos unleashed by Trump actually pulling the plug on globalized trade. The OV project will be very timely because it will deal with a problem manifest at the Cambridge show, namely where delegates who do not know where to begin among the several hundred exihibitors end up being herded into the main speaker hall where they are pumped the dozen or so companies backed by the Sprott-Rule-Giustra complex with whom the conference's organizer, Marin Katusa, is aligned. The old model that treats investors as sheep to be sheared and companies as cattle to be yoked will never disappear. But what will appear is the empowerment of the investor to shape expectations and the ability of independent juniors to attract an audience without old-school intermediairies. The OV revolution will enable an unlimited gambling audience to discover the betting opportunities presented by all juniors, not just the handful pumped through narrow channels. Anybody interested in becoming a beta tester should contact John Kaiser by email via this web site.


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